What the Polls Show
Who's on first? Depends on what day it is.
By Lee Nichols, Fri., Oct. 31, 2008
• U.S. Senate: The rather wild number fluctuations make us wonder about Rasmussen Reports, but if its numbers are accurate, then Democrat Rick Noriega has lost ground in his battle to unseat John Cornyn. As of Oct. 21, Cornyn had a 55%-40% advantage (500 likely voters, margin of error ±4.5%.); as recently as Sept. 29, Cornyn's edge was a still solid but much lower 50%-43%. Since Rasmussen began tracking in May, it's shown the race as close as 4 points and as wide as 17 but always with Cornyn on top.
• Congressional District 10: A Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll Oct. 20-22 showed an ever-narrowing gap between incumbent Republican Michael McCaul (46%) and Democrat Larry Joe Doherty (42%) with 4% "other" and 8% undecided (400 likely voters, MOE ±5%). Three previous polls by other firms since May have shown McCaul's advantage, respectively, at 9%, 6%, and (less than a month ago) 5%.
• President: There are any number of websites tracking the Electoral College possibilities, but they all consistently show Sen. John McCain in dire straits in the chase for the 270 votes needed to win. Where some predictions stood as of Monday:
(Website: Likely Obama / Likely McCain / Toss-up)
Electoral-Vote.com: 306 / 132 / 100
Pollster.com: 306 / 142 / 90
NPR.org: 286 / 163 / 89
CNN.com: 277 / 174 / 87
Fivethirtyeight.com: 351 / 187 / 0*
*Doesn't do toss-ups
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