How ERCOT and the City Are Preparing for the Next Winter Storm
Mayor: "We should anticipate that we will have a big weather event"
By Lina Fisher, Fri., Dec. 8, 2023
On November 17, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas dropped a winter prognosis assuring that it is "not projecting emergency conditions this winter and expects to have adequate resources to meet demand." They added that since the catastrophic 2021 Winter Storm Uri, ERCOT has made several improvements, including inspecting power plants for proper weatherization, adding additional battery capacity, designating gas plants as critical infrastructure so they won't shut down during blackouts, and launching a text notification service in May of this year.
Some have called that confidence into question: In his Energy and Power newsletter November 21, energy consultant Doug Lewin pointed out that only last month, ERCOT had issued an unprecedented request for power plants to build out additional capacity in anticipation of a stressed grid this winter. (They had to cancel that request due to the lack of applications.) "Which is it?" Lewin wrote in the newsletter. "Are there major problems that call for extraordinary measures? Or is everything fine? It can't be both." He says the improvements noted by ERCOT in their release, plus the massive amount of solar power that has been added in the last few years that kept the grid stable during the sweltering summer months, means "we're in better shape" than three years ago, but in the event of another Winter Storm Uri, "the likelihood of at least some rolling outages is probably close to 100%."
Mayor Kirk Watson also expects a severe storm this winter: In a press conference last Friday outlining how the city has improved its winter storm preparations since 2021, he stressed that "we should anticipate that we will have a big weather event. That's just one of the realities of the changes in our climate."
On the bright side, the city has made several changes since both Uri's and Winter Storm Mara's after-action reports highlighted how broken the city's internal and external communications and coordination were for winter weather. "One of the things that I'll highlight is better coordination, with regard to communication not just to the community, but within the city government to make sure that people know what's going on and can react in an appropriate way," said Watson.
Austin Energy General Manager Bob Kahn highlighted that the public utility has expanded its emergency management team and that vegetation management crews have made "good progress" since Mara trimming at-risk branches. However, in September a city audit found that crews were behind schedule due to a lack of applicants, despite Council approving increased funding for four new crews. Kahn noted in the conference that finding enough people to do the trimming has been a problem. Another city department that has been experiencing severe understaffing, the 911 call center, had better news: Assistant City Manager Bruce Mills noted that the call center will be "close to 100% staffed" in the next three weeks.
As far as road safety, Richard Mendoza, director for Transportation and Public Works noted that "the classical approach here in Austin has always been to kind of wait out the storm, let us thaw out within 24 hours. That's no longer occurring. We have added resources and equipment and trained our personnel to be proactive and apply anti-icing and de-icing agents on our critical roadways and bridges. In addition, we have trained operators to move snow accumulations."
Several responses remain the same, including the city's Multi-Agency Resource Centers and the county's six community centers opening as warming shelters. Emergency Medical Services Chief Robert Luckritz noted that Community Health Paramedics will clock additional hours in the days leading up to forecast winter weather to connect with people experiencing homelessness, making sure they have adequate transportation to warming centers.
Despite the changes, Watson put a heavy emphasis on Austinites' personal responsibility: "Lots of different approaches have been put into place over the past year. But there will be things that are unexpected, that will cause a disruption. Responses will not always be perfect, or at least the way we might want them to be exactly under the circumstances. This is a team effort. It's not just the government – we must all individually also participate and be prepared."
At the conference, Ken Snipes, director of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, highlighted the Ready Together emergency preparedness training program that HSEM launched in September for the public. The course emphasizes making a plan, having a kit of supplies, knowing your neighbors, and staying informed through emergency text alerts and the like. HSEM plans to host the course quarterly in 2024, and future training dates will be listed at readycentraltexas.org. You can download HSEM's neighborhood preparedness guide from that site and sign up for Austin Energy text alerts about winter weather by texting REG to 287846. The city also urges people to sign up for Warn Central Texas notifications at warncentraltexas.org.
* Editor's note Thursday, Dec. 7 1:11pm: This story has been updated to clarify Doug Lewin's position that "the likelihood of at least some rolling outages is probably close to 100%" is only in the event of Winter Storm Uri-like conditions.
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