WWC: Previewing the Group Stage Finales

With the U.S. win over Chile on Sunday, all 24 teams have now played two games. Over the next four days, each of the six groups will play their finales: two games simultaneously, all televised on Fox, FS1, FS2, and Telemundo.

Nine teams are already assured of advancing to the knockout round of 16, though no group winners have been decided, and no one is yet officially eliminated. The teams that are already in: USA, France, England, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Japan, and Canada. You’ll notice a heavy European flavor there, and there’ll likely be more. By week’s end, Europe could see all nine teams make it through.

Mon., June 17
Germany-South Africa, Spain-China, 11am (Group B): Germany should wrap up Group B against a game but not-yet-ready-for-prime-time New Zealand, but die frauenschaft haven’t really impressed in attack or defense in a pair of 1-0 wins over Spain and China. Those two will battle for second place, with Spain having looked the more enterprising, and China not really producing much of an attack thus far. Spain holds the goal-differential tiebreaker, but China probably wouldn’t mind a draw – third place with 4 points would get them into the next round.

France-Nigeria, Norway-South Korea, 2pm (Group A): France has pretty thoroughly impressed so far; they should control Nigeria much the same way they’ve controlled this group. A draw would be a great result for Nigeria – again, 4 points and they’re through – but a loss puts them on the bubble. Norway were clearly second-best against France, and will need to find a scorer if they’re going to go deep into this tournament, but they should be able to handle South Korea, who’ve been one of the big disappointments so far.

Tue., June 18
Italy-Brazil, Jamaica-Australia, 2pm (Group C): Italy-Brazil should be one of the better games of this last group stage round – which stands to reason because the two games they each played against Australia remain the best of the tournament so far. Italy came from behind to win 2-1 on a goal deep into extra time. This is their first time to qualify in 20 years, and not much was expected of them, but after a 5-0 rout of Jamaica, they already have a spot in the final 16 wrapped up, and three multi-goal scorers (all of them teammates at Juventus in the Italian League). They can clinch first place in the group with a draw, or even perhaps a one-goal loss here. Brazil was stung and embarrassed by losing a two-goal lead and a 3-2 game to Australia, so they’ll be out to prove they’re still one of the best in the world, and will likely press Italy all over the field, which is a game Italy has looked comfortable with thus far. Meanwhile, Australia should have their way with Jamaica – though the Reggae Girlz have been one of the feel-good stories of the tournament as the first-ever Caribbean entrants, from a nation that only recently has begun to develop a support system for women’s soccer, most notably with contributions from the Marley family. Unfortunately for them, on this day it may be a matter of goal differential for Australia; if Brazil manages to knock off Italy, the Matildas could sneak back into winning the group if they can better Italy’s five-goal margin of victory.

Wed., June 19
England-Japan, Scotland-Argentina, 2pm (Group D): England-Japan was always supposed to be for the group title: a rematch of their epic overtime thriller in the semifinals four years ago, when Japan knocked England out to advance to their second straight final. Since then, England has gotten a lot stronger, and came in ranked third in the world, while Japan has had a lot of turnover: half of the lineup is 22 or younger, and there are more players from the 2014 U-17 World Cup champs, than holdovers from the 2011 WWC champs. Argentina bunkered in and held Japan to a scoreless draw, which gives the South Americans the edge over Scotland for third place. But another draw won’t help either team, so maybe we’ll see them come out of their shell.

Thu., June 20
Both of the sets of final day games feature two teams already advanced, playing for first and second in the group, and two winless teams, hoping for a chance to survive. One slight advantage for these teams going last: they’ll know exactly what they have to do to advance, or whom they’ll matchup against in the knockout round bracket. (It may well be, for example, that the U.S. would have an easier draw if they finish second in their group, than if they win it.)

Netherlands-Canada, Cameroon-New Zealand, 11am (Group E): Netherlands has the tiebreaker advantage over Canada, having scored one more goal, though they’re tied in goal differential. And that may wind up being the difference, because there’s not much to choose between these two sides, either of which could be an overall contender. Root for our continental neighbors, who have a nice blend of veteran leadership and young talent. Or root for the Dutch Oranje, one of the new wave of European teams that are seeing the benefits of new investment in their countries’ women’s leagues. In the third-place game, Cameroon has shown more promise and individual talent; New Zealand has been overrun, and just seen very little of the ball in either of their losses to date.

USA-Sweden, Thailand-Chile, 2pm (Group F): And the finale, which is of course the big game for American fans. This group was always pointing to U.S.-Sweden, and that’s what it comes down to. The U.S. has looked absolutely great thus far, though the largely second-team squad selected for the second game lacked some cohesion. They’ll be back to full strength and largely rested against Sweden, and are clearly the better team. The better team doesn’t always win, of course, but Sweden hasn’t shown nearly the attacking flair that they’ll need to pull off an upset. The U.S. has the goal-differential tiebreaker, of course, due to the Thai game, so a draw does Sweden no good; that could augur a more open game plan than the bunkering that has often served them so well against the U.S. Chile-Thailand, meanwhile, is a consolation affair: even a win is unlikely to keep either team alive, due to the adverse goal differential, but it sure would feel good.

Friday, June 21 is a day off, before the knockout Round of 16 begins June 22.

Round of 16:
(with potential matchups in parentheses)
Sat., June 22, 10:30am, 1B-3ACD; 2pm, 2A-2C (Germany-?, Norway-Australia)
Sun., June 23, 10:30am, 1D-3BEF; 2pm, 1A-3CDE (England-?, France-?)
Mon., June 24, 11am, 1F-2B; 2pm, 2E-2F (USA-Spain, Sweden-Netherlands)
Tue., June 25, 11am, 1C-3ABF; 2pm, 1E-2D (Italy-?, Canada-Japan)
Quarterfinals:
Thu., June 27, 2pm (England-Italy???)
Fri., June 28, 2pm (USA-France???)
Sat., June 29, 8am (Australia-Canada???) & 11:30am (Germany-Netherlands???);
Tue., July 2, 2pm, Semifinal
Wed., July 3, 2pm, Semifinal
Sat., July 6, 10am, Third Place game
Sun., July 7, 10am, Championship Final

Group Standings
Pts, (W-D-L, Goal Differential)
Group A
6 France (2-0-0, +5)
3 Norway (1-0-0, +2)
3 Nigeria (1-0-1, -2)
0 South Korea (0-0-2, -5)
Group B
6 Germany (2-0-0, +2)
3 Spain (1-0-1, +1)
3 China (1-0-1, 0)
0 South Africa ( 0-0-1, -2)
Group C
6 Italy (2-0-0, +6)
3 Brazil (1-0-1, +2)
3 Australia (1-0-1, 0)
0 Jamaica (0-0-2, -8)
Group D
6 England (2-0-0, +2)
4 Japan (1-1-0, +1)
1 Argentina (0-1-1, -1)
0 Scotland (0-0-2, -2)
Group E
6 Netherlands (2-0-0, +3)
6 Canada (2-0-0, +3)
0 Cameroon (0-0-2, -3)
0 New Zealand (0-0-2, -3)
Group F
6 USA (2-0-0, +16)
6 Sweden (2-0-0, +6)
0 Chile (0-0-1, -5)
0 Thailand (0-0-1, -17)