'The NFL Beat': Back To Reality

If "The NFL Beat" was a car commercial it would feature the fastest and most devastatingly awesome cars you have ever seen. They would run on a combination of lithium-ion battery packs and pure hate, reaching glorious onscreen speeds of 145-plus mph. (A professional driver would be used, and duly noted as such in subtitles.)

Our monumental fantasy season together has ended, but the Beat marches on. In the coming months, we’ll be rolling out all kinds of special coverage, from the Senior Bowl to college pro days to the NFL Scouting Combine and then the NFL Draft. But that is the future and we are products of the present. This is Week 17 and these are your NFL playoff scenarios:

Lions (10-5) @ Packers (14-1)
Regardless of the outcome of this game, Green Bay will retain the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and the road to the championship will go through Lambeau. After Atlanta’s Monday night loss to New Orleans, the Lions have clinched a wild card berth of their own. They still have seeding to play for, though. If they can beat Green Bay, they will be the fifth seed, and be slated to face the winner of the Cowboys/Giants game at home in the wild card round. If Detroit loses to Green Bay and Atlanta loses to Tampa Bay, the Lions still retain the fifth seed. If Detroit Loses and Atlanta wins, the Lions would be the sixth seed and face a much tougher contest – likely having to face the Saints in the Superdome right out of the gate. No es bueno.

Jets (8-7) @ Miami (5-10)
Miami has been eliminated (honestly, both of these teams remind me of something that might be eliminated from the business end of your body), but the Jets still have a slim hope. In order to make the playoffs, the Jets must beat Miami and have all of the following occur:
1) The Bengals lose at home to the Ravens.
2) The Titans lose in Houston to the Texans, and
3) One of either Denver or Oakland lose. (Oakland faces San Diego and Denver faces Kansas City.)

Panthers (6-9) @ Saints (12-3)
An overlooked result of Monday’s record-setting performance by QB Drew Brees was that in beating Atlanta, the Saints have clinched the NFC South and will host at least one playoff game at home. They currently own the three seed, but could move up to the two spot and acquire a first-round bye with a combination of a win over Carolina and an unlikely 49ers loss at home to a dreadful Rams team. For now, it looks as if we will be getting a Week 16 rematch of the Falcons and the Saints in New Orleans for the first round.

Bills (6-9) @ Patriots (12-3)
Very simple. The Patriots win this game and they will have the AFC’s top seed, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage throughout. If they lose, they can still get the top seed with losses by both Baltimore and Pittsburgh. A Patriots loss combined with a single win by either the Steelers or the Ravens would result in the Patriots clinching the second seed.

Titans (8-7) @ Texans (10-5)
Tennessee must win this game to get in, and Titans fans need to be Ravens fans this week to have any hope. There are exactly three ways in which Tennessee can snatch up the last playoff spot in the AFC, and all include the Titans and the Ravens both winning their final regular season games:
1) Titans win, Ravens beat Bengals, Jets beat Dolphins, Chiefs beat Broncos.
2) Titans win, Ravens win, Jets beat Dolphins, Chargers beat Raiders.
3) Titans win, Ravens win, Dolphins beat Jets, Chiefs beat Broncos.

The Texans have already locked up a three seed and will be the AFC’s third seed regardless of the outcome of this and/or other games. For the Texans’ playoff situation, this game is meaningless.

49ers (12-3) @ Rams (2-13)
The 49ers are the NFC West Champs and the odds-on favorite to capture the NFC’s second seed and a first-round bye. They can do so via three different scenarios, the first being the most likely: Win this week against a terrible Rams team. They can also tie, and will still clinch if the Saints lose to (or tie) Carolina. Finally, they can lose to the Rams and still clinch the two spot if the Saints also lose.

Bucs (4-11) @ Falcons (9-6)
The Falcons are in the playoffs, and will likely be playing as the last wild-card team from the NFC having secured the sixth seed. They will flip-flop seeding with the currently fifth-seeded Lions should Detroit lose to the Packers and the Falcons defeat the horrible Bucs at home. Falcons fans are hoping against hope that the Packers do not elect to rest their starters this week, making it easy on the Lions to win and gain home-field advantage for the wild card game and a much better matchup with the winner of the NFC East, as opposed to having to travel to New Orleans or San Francisco right off.

Chargers (7-8) @ Raiders (8-7)
The Chargers have been eliminated, which will eliminate Philip Rivers’ whiny attitude and sub-par QB play as of late from my weekly routine, which is nice. As for the Raiders, they are still very much alive and can get in via two routes. The route they would most prefer is as AFC West Champions. This will occur with the combination of a Raiders win and a Broncos loss/tie to Kansas City or a Raiders win/tie against San Diego and a Broncos loss. If these events do not occur, the Raiders are still not eliminated from gaining the AFC’s final sixth seed, but they will need much more help. If the Raiders are not crowned AFC West Champs, they can get in by either of the following two scenarios:
1) Raiders win, Ravens win over Bengals, Texans win/tie versus Titans or
2) Raiders win, Ravens win and Jets win versus the Dolphins.

Chiefs (6-9) @ Broncos (8-7)
Who better to control his own destiny than Tim Tebow? This is a one-game season for the Broncos, and unlike the Raiders, the Broncos would not be eligible for a wild-card berth and must win the AFC West to stamp their only possible ticket to the NFL playoffs as the fourth seed with home-field advantage to start. Quite simply, the Broncos will be in the playoffs if one of these two things occurs: Broncos win and/or Raiders lose.

Steelers (11-4) @ Browns (4-11)
The Steelers have clinched a playoff berth and their remaining scenarios involve only seeding.
1) To earn the top overall seed, gaining a first-round bye and home field throughout, the Steelers must beat the Browns, the Bills must beat the Patriots, and the Bengals must beat the Ravens.
2) To earn the second seed they must beat the Browns and the Bengals must beat the Ravens.
3) The Steelers worst-case scenario: Ravens and Patriots victories. Win or lose against the Browns, this result would net them the AFC’s fifth seed and first wild-card spot.

Ravens (11-4) @ Bengals (9-6)
The Ravens will be AFC North Champions with either a win over the Bengals or a Steelers loss. Both of these outcomes would net the Ravens the AFC’s second seed. Basically, the Steelers and the Ravens are not only fighting for the division this week, but also the vast difference in seeding between the two seed (which gets one game at home plus a first-round bye) and the five seed which sends them on the rod in round one to face the winner of the AFC West. The Bengals are still alive and can clinch the AFC’s final wild-card spot if any of the following three occurs:
1) Beat the Ravens
2) Dolphins beat Jets, Chiefs beat Broncos
3) Dolphins beat Jets, Chargers beat Raiders.

Cowboys (8-7) @ Giants (8-7)
The NFL in its wisdom and glory has saved the best for last. No long scenarios here, which is good because Jason Garrett did not learn much about probability at Princeton, apparently. Icing your own kicker to lose the game increases probability of getting yourself canned, so he has some work to do in that area it seems. One team wins and goes to the playoffs. The other goes home. Easy as that.

Enjoy the games and God bless the National Football League.

[Alex Dunlap is the host of RosterWatch on 104.9FM ESPN Radio Austin, founder of Rosterwatch.com, and a featured expert contributor to the FantasyPros.com network.]