Top 12 Reasons UT Will Defeat Bama

I told you so. Back in October I predicted a Texas-Alabama national title game. But I didn't quite predict a national championship for the Longhorns. Time to commit. Here are my Top 12 reasons Texas will claim a victory in the Rose Bowl, spurring fans to buy all sorts of gaudy new burnt orange paraphernalia:

1) As was the case against Nebraska in the sloppy, ugly Big 12 title game, Texas has a better defense. Nebraska had a better individual defensive player in Ndamukong Suh. Alabama may have a crushing defensive duo in Terrence Cody and Rolando McClain, but the underrated Texas D is a more solid overall unit. I'll take surging Sergio Kindle and ramrod Roddrick Muckelroy any day. Earl Thomas has returned two of his eight interceptions for touchdowns lest we forget. Plus, injured Lamarr Houston and Deon Beasley should be back to deadly full strength.

2) The Texas D is tops in the nation in smothering the running game. Heisman winner Mark Ingram will squirt through for a couple of decent runs, but Texas D is not Florida D. Alabama relies on a balanced offense. With Ingram a major threat, Tide quarterback Greg McElroy has been able to establish a mostly interception-free and very vanilla passing game. Expect a rude awakening against the nation's top rushing defense that allows only 62 ground yards a game. McElroy will have to get inventive, and the Bama offensive is not geared to that.

3) Alabama, despite its own stellar defense, is not big on the sack. Colt McCoy will have a chance to get the ball in the air. The Tide will key on Jordan Shipley, but Texas has a stable of semi-unsung receivers for McCoy to choose from. Marquis Goodwin and Malcolm Williams are playmakers just coming into their own.

4) Overconfidence. The Crimson Tide players and fans believe they already played their national title game against defending champ Florida. They expect another crushing victory. Did I mention that Texas isn't Florida? Case in point: Alabama's low turnover numbers. The Horn D loves to strip the ball. Alabama will have one or more turnovers in the title game.

5) Colt McCoy. He's not Vince Young, but he studied at the Zen master's feet. He's also the winningest college quarterback ever. Ever. From the talk in recent weeks, you'd think that McCoy lost against Nebraska. He came close in that final-seconds scramble, but he won. Just like he and the Horns did every week this season. Just like he has 45 times as a Texas starter. McCoy hasn't really had his breakout game this season. Yet. But he wins, and that includes three straight bowl victories.

6) Nebraska and Texas A&M. The Texas offense didn't show for the former and the defense fell apart against the latter. This is not an overconfident Texas team; it is, however, a team with something to prove. Ending the season in this manner gives Alabama plenty of film to watch, but it gives Texas players a reason to stay on their toes and prove the critics wrong.

7) I never thought I'd say this, but Mack Brown is a gambler. He wasn't in his early days as Texas head coach, but he is now. I read something recently about the high school coach who studied the statistics and determined it was a good bet to go for it on fourth down almost every time. Brown won't go that far, but I'm betting he read the same article.

8) Jordan Shipley, Marquis Goodwin and the return of a sober D.J. Monroe. Which one will run back a kickoff/punt for a touchdown? Can you say quick momentum shift in a tight game?

9) Will Muschamp, the head coach in waiting. The biggest coaching move Brown has made was to put the carrot out there to keep Muschamp on board for just this moment.

10) Offense? Who needs an offense? Texas has scored nine nonoffensive touchdowns this season. See above.

11) The Texas offensive line is better than you think. Dan Buckner is superhuman and Chris Hall is the nicest guy you'll ever come crashing into.

12) The Heisman curse. Win the trophy and lose the war. The only thing worse would be a preseason No. 1 ranking by Sports Illustrated. My brother-in-law has the 1973 SI Hook 'Em cover framed on his game-room wall, and it still makes me shudder.

Will my prediction – let's say a 24-17 Texas win – hold up to the surging Tide? Ask again Friday morning. Until then, play ball.