The (Point) Seven Percent Solution

Talk about one rule for "high-profile" candidates and another for everyone else: It looks like CNN is giving sixth-place New Hampshire finisher Gov. Rick Perry a seat in their next debate – even though he has not earned it.

The last big debate before the Jan. 21 South Carolina primary is the Jan. 19 CNN debate at the South Republican Leadership Conference. According to the news channel's criteria for inclusion, a candidate must hit one of four targets:

– Fourth or better in the Iowa caucus
– Fourth or better in the New Hampshire Primary
– Average 7% or better in three national polls between Jan. 1 and Jan 18
– Average 7% or better in at least three South Carolina polls in the same period.

Well, Perry came fifth in Iowa and (don't laugh) sixth in New Hampshire (seventh, if you count all the write-in votes for 'other.') As for his polling, so far the composite polls at RealClearPolitics.com have him slumping consistently around 5% in South Carolina since the beginning of the year. Similarly, only one national poll, a Reuters/Ipsos survey taken Jan. 5-9 (i.e. before his New Hampshire drubbing) puts him on 7%, and the rest are well below that.

So, by those metrics, Perry should have been looking for invites to a debate watch party because, at the moment, he has failed to hit any of those criteria.

However, Turner Broadcasting Systems director of public relations Edie Emery told Talking Points Memo that Perry will be invited and that "he has met the criteria." Er, which ones? His polling is in the low single digits and he's officially an also-ran in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Which all begs the question: What numbers is CNN looking at?

Oh, and before the Ron Paul supporters get too giddy about his r-evol-ution post-New Hampshire, while the resurgent ex-Libertarian will make the debate, his current national polling average for January is still only 12.6%. That's barely a flicker of an upturn from December's 10% plateau, and he's only barely cracking 10% in the Palmetto state.