The Numbers Game

Another volley has been fired in the polling wars, with new Rasmussen numbers seemingly showing Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison edging ahead of Gov. Rick Perry. In reality, the two leading Republican gubernatorial candidates remain locked in the same statistical tie they've been in all year.

In the new poll, Hutchison is leading Perry amingst likely Republican primary voters, 40% to 38%. But since this poll has a 3.5% margin of error, and they are only two points apart, no one is ahead, and no-one is really behind.

That's been the model pretty much all year. In mid-July, Rasmussen reported Perry was ahead 46% to 36% – At first glance, a big leap from his four point lead in May. In fact, both came with a 4% margin of error, so both were either too close to call or gave Perry such a tiny advantage that a good breeze could wipe it out.

It's not just Rasmussen's numbers. In a survey published in May by UT Austin, Hutchison was ahead of Perry, 37% to 29%, amongst registered voters: By July, that had switched so that Hutchison was trailing 26% to 38%. But since the May poll had a 6% margin of error, and July's was 5%, both really showed a statistical dead heat or a lead so small that it was insignificant.

Taking the margin of error into account, the seeming trend was that Perry had a little midsummer bump amongst likely Republican voters. That's gone away now, and Hutchison has yet to start any serious campaigning.

There are also two further complicating factors. One, there is a good possibility that Perry-hating Democrats may become ABPs (anyone but Perry), crossing the floor to vote for Hutchison in the primary, and then voting Democratic next November, thus rendering polling moot. Secondly, the Rasmussen poll was a phone poll, and there are increasing questions about how accurate those numbers are in a post-landline era.

In fact, the most interesting fact for this race is that secessionist candidate Debra Medina is included in Rasmussen's latest polling questions. She only polls 3%, but then only 47% of likely Republican primary voters had an opinion about her. It will be interesting to see if she picks up any momentum in the 19% "undecideds", or amongst the 53% who are unsure of whether they regard her unfavorably or not.