The Luv Doc: Bonne Chance

The statistical probability of the Luv Doc taking another statistics class is 0.0

The Luv Doc: Bonne Chance

Dear Luv Doc,

It feels like I have been cooped up forever, but now with the COVID numbers dropping and South by Southwest in town, I am thinking next week might be time to make my social debut! What are my chances of a drunken encounter with Jared Leto in a poorly lit bar? Any suggestions on how to make that happen?

– Stalker Just Released on Her Own Recognizance


Look, I'm no statistician. I mean, I did make the highest grade on the first test in my college statistics class, but I also made the lowest grade on the final, which cumulatively earned me a D for the semester. That was my first D ever. Not a real confidence booster, but that said, I do have faith in the overall efficacy of statistical probability as it relates to a number of topics. For instance: The statistical probability of me taking another statistics class is 0.0. I know that's not a real statistical probability, but I made a D in statistics, so you can pretty much assume any statistic I quote is going to be terribly flawed if not an outright fabrication.

Nevertheless, I would wager that the statistical probability of you having a drunken encounter with Jared Leto in a poorly lit bar is going to increase greatly the darker the bar and the drunker you are. Hell, I'm confident I saw Dave Grohl last Friday even though everybody in the room frowned at me as I said, "Hey, there's Dave Grohl," into a microphone as he was walking by. You know who didn't frown at me? Dave Grohl. In fact, he was completely ignoring me – rather suspiciously I might add – like he had something to hide.

Now, I will be the first to admit that the number of quinquagenarian white dudes at SXSW that look vaguely like Dave Grohl probably number in the low thousands, but this guy just had a certain I-used-to-drum-for-Cobain swagger about him. Can you imagine anyone else blithely ignoring someone shouting (OK, maybe it was just an assertive outdoor voice) their name into a microphone in a crowded bar? That's the kind of cool you can't get by having shoulder-length hair and a muffin duster. If it was, Richard Branson wouldn't be so goddamned thirsty.

Anyway, the point is that drunk people in low-light conditions have way more celebrity encounters than sober people in perfect lighting. That's just a natural fact. They also see more UFOs, ghosts, bigfoots (feet?), Loch Ness Monsters, deer ladies, and impossibly exotic wildlife. You don't believe me? My brother is a freakin' wildlife clairvoyant. One night he saw a family of black mountain lions in a tree in suburban Ft. Worth. He has seen more bears than you can count on your fingers and toes and he lives in Parker County! Does he drink? Li'l bit. Does he have 20/20 vision? Not hardly. Is he prone to occasional bouts of fabulism? Yuh huh.

Here's the deal with celebrity encounters: Ideally no one is taking you to court over that shit. In fact, they're probably not going to challenge your assertion whatsoever, so feel free to embellish all you want. Does it really matter whether you had a torrid make-out sesh in a filthy bathroom stall with Jared Leto or a JuiceLand smoothie technician who looks almost identical to Jared Leto ... in the right lighting ... after half a dozen White Claws? Unless you're carrying his love child, everyone's a winner, right? You have a great story about making out with Jared Leto and the smoothie technician gets to tell his co-workers he got ravaged by a crazy drunk girl with serious stalker vibes. If that's not a successful SXSW, I don't know what is, so bonne chance!

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