The Verde Report: Through Five Games, Austin FC Has the Look of a Playoff Team

Midfielder Owen Wolff has emerged as a chance-creating machine for Austin FC (courtesy of Austin FC)

Five matches into the 2025 MLS regular season, we have our first real sample size with which to judge this new-look iteration of Austin FC.

So far, there’s a lot to like. Over the weekend, the Verde and Black took down previously unbeaten expansion side San Diego FC, 2-1, for the club’s third win of the season. Austin’s nine points out of a possible 15 is the second-best start of any team in the Western Conference, behind only the Vancouver Whitecaps (12 points).

The big question: Is that early success sustainable? Let’s take a closer look at what’s worked for El Tree thus far, and what still needs to improve for Austin FC to make the playoffs for the first time since 2022.

What’s Worked: Defense

The biggest reason for Austin’s hot start has been stout, organized defending from top to bottom. The club has conceded just three goals over its first five games, tied for the second-fewest of any MLS team.

For a sample of this size, though, it’s important to look beyond the goals, since the scoreboard doesn’t always paint an accurate picture of how well a club is consistently repelling the opponent. Fortunately for ATXFC, though, things seem to hold up under the microscope.

Austin’s Expected Goals Conceded figure sits at just 3.6, per FBRef. That’s the lowest in the West. Austin is also one of just five clubs allowing fewer than three shots on target per match.

Perhaps most impressively, ATXFC is doing this despite starting four different back line combinations in five games, due to hamstring injuries to Julio Cascante and Mikkel Desler. (Cascante returned as a substitute against San Diego, while Desler remains out.)

Needs Work: Attacking

While conceding just three goals in four games is great, scoring four over the same span isn’t.

Over the first four matches, Austin FC’s biggest issue was an inability to create quality scoring opportunities for its $30 million front line of Brandon Vazquez, Myrto Uzuni, and Osman Bukari. Against San Diego, though, those chances came in bunches. With Uzuni away with the Albanian National Team, Vazquez did manage to score his first Austin FC goal. But really, it wasn’t a great day for Austin’s attackers, as way too many grade-A chances went to waste.

Until Uzuni can get an extended run for Austin (he’s played just 42% of the club’s minutes so far), it’s too early to have serious concerns about the club’s ability to find the back of the net. And even with the offensive struggles so far, Austin FC still ranks roughly middle-of-the-pack in terms of shots created and expected goals.

That said, it’s clear that the club still has several kinks to work out in order to consistently trouble opposing goalkeepers.

One bright spot: Owen Wolff’s emergence as a chance-creating machine. The 20-year-old already has three assists on the season and is tied for the MLS lead in big chances created with five, per data tracking site FotMob.

What’s Improving: Nico Estévez

In his first season with Austin FC, head coach Nico Estévez is already earning the trust of many a demanding Verde fan thanks to positive results.

Estévez has shown himself to be something of a tactical chameleon, experimenting with several different strategic setups to get the most out of his players. Initially, Austin FC played for possession, averaging 57% of the ball over the first three games. Over the last two matches, however, that figure has dropped to 27% as Estévez set his club up to play on the counterattack. He’s played with two forwards, three forwards, two central midfielders, four central midfielders, you name it.

“I’m learning through every week,” Estévez said. “Just trying to do my best to put every player in the best position to perform. I think we’re getting close to connecting all the dots, and then see a team that is really fun to watch.”

It will be fascinating to see how Estévez approaches a tough test Sunday as Austin FC hits the road to take on St. Louis City SC, the only team in the league that has conceded fewer goals than the Verde and Black.