Texas and the Numbers Game

While the eyes of the politerati are set on next week's primary states for settling the Democratic presidential nomination, there's a statistical possibility (read "long-shot") that the whole shooting match could come down to the Texas Democratic Party Convention next weekend.

Howso? Well, according to CNN's latest estimates, Obama still needs 42 delegates to clinch the nomination. Out of next Tuesday's primary states, Montana only has 16 pledged delegates and South Dakota 15, while non-state Puerto Rico (living in the political equivalent of 'good enough to date, not good enough to marry') which goes to the polls Sunday only has 55. Texas, however, has 67 pledged delegates (and four supers) yet to be locked down: they'll be apportioned on the day of the convention, following the preferences of delegates when they sign in.

Depending on how the remaining primaries break, and whichever way the party's rules committee settles the whole Florida and Michigan (aka the "party rules are for other people" states), and which super-delegate wants to be the one that puts the candidate over the top, that could mean it gets settled next weekend at the Austin Convention Center. And in this campaign season, stranger things have happened.