Coach's Corner
By Andy "Coach" Cotton, Fri., Feb. 19, 1999
The usually incorrect conventional wisdom was, as the lockout wore on and on, the "shortened" season would benefit the older players and older teams. This rational was oft cited as the reasonwhy Jordan would return: While the 82-game regular season would be too much of a grind, shit, any tittybaby could play 50. Then Jordan took a look at the reality of 50 games in 90 days, combined with the debilitating prospect of game-airport-hotel-game-airport-hotel, and decided maybe his last-second shot last May was, after all, a nice way to end a decent career.
A closer look at the "soft" 50-game season also revealed an unprecedented, knee-ripping grind of three games in three nights for most teams. Three teams face this ridiculous prospect three times in the "short" season. I'll make you a bet that no team playing three straight wins that third game -- home or away -- unless the other team is in the same boat. When this gruesome reality (guaranteeing ragged, ugly, non-competitive games) became apparent, the conventional wisdom changed: youth will, in the end, have its day! This thinking goes along the lines that young legs will survive this death march, while the old ones will fall into the pit behind press row.
One problem with the youth-shall-be-served theory is this: With the single exception of the Lakers, the "young" teams are all so lacking in experience, talent, chemistry and depth, it's impossible to make a realistic case for them. I can't see, say, the Bucks or Pistons making a Cinderella run to the NBA title, no matter how hard-hit with injuries the Knicks or Pacers or whoever might be. (Though I will say, if ever there was a year for a real miracle darkhorse to appear, it's this skewed and already bizarre season.)
Another problem is this: who can say with any certainty whose body is going to break down first, a young one or an older one? So far, with less than a tenth of the schedule played, guys of all ages are falling like Santa Anna's troops in front of John Wayne's guns at the Alamo. Decimated is a frequently used adjective in newspaper leads these days. The Rockets, who looked great in early games, are a very old team. With three great players -- average age, 35 -- they are now, with Barkley already out with a torn knee, one tear away from the "d" word. So that's one old guy out. But Latrell Sprewell, a young fella, broke his foot, and Shaq, just a baby, has already missed games due to his chronically troubled tummy, so who knows? Trying to decipher who is more likely to get hurt is like me trying to figure out in advance what part of my lawn's going to die this summer. The side next to the driveway that croaked last summer? The front corner which is so exposed to the sun? Maybe the middle because I can't find that broken pipe or hell, maybe the damn cinch bugs will get the whole thing. I don't know. The expert lawn guy doesn't know. Not even my neighbor George -- who knows everything -- knows. So screw it, let's ignore all the tea leaf reading and go with the best team, age be damned.
The Atlantic Division is jammed up with four, maybe five teams who could win, but then what? Neither the Knicks, Orlando, Miami, New Jersey, and let's add Boston, are really very good. For a long shot, I'd say the Magic might be the most dangerous of all.
As the Mongol hordes, with their ancient capital in Beijing, once terrorized all of Central Asia, so was Chicago the feared capital of the Central Division. The King, as we all know, is dead. The long-beleaguered and tortured subjects spit and piss upon the long hated and feared Bull symbol -- Benny the Bull -- with impunity. Like the Balkans, the Old Kingdom is rife with anarchy. Decent young teams in Detroit, Milwaukee, and Atlanta are rattling sabers but you can't, logically, pick against the Pacers, perhaps the most pedestrian, dull, and workmanlike favorite imaginable. Yeah, they're old, but they're also solid, well-coached, well-conditioned, and they all know each others' names, which is more than many teams can say. It's not creative, but go with Indiana.
Then there's The West. The Spurs, outside of Robinson and Duncan, have little talent. The Rockets are too old, and even worse, too prone to injury. Seattle is way older than people think. Offhand, I can't name a single Trailblazer. Utah and L.A. are all that's left. I'm tempted to declare the Lakers as the new one-eyed king. Young legs, great talent. But something's missing, particularly in the fourth quarter. Utah's old, but so what? That's the same thing they said about the Bulls the last three years. Truth is, "old" teams have a stranglehold on championships, both conference and league-wide. Old is good. I'd love to pick Portland and be right, but that's an off-balance half-court shot. Stockton to Malone will pick and roll their way to a much-deserved title.
Mark one up for us old folks.
