Texas Republicans have spent the day treating Senator-elect Scott Brown‘s victory over Democrat Martha Coakley as some kind of victory in Texas and a red dagger in the heart of the deep blue politics of Massachusetts. That would be the same Massachusetts where the GOP held the governor’s and lieutenant governor’s offices for most of the last two decades?
Yes, the Democrats own the legislature and congressional delegation and, between John Kerry and the late Ted Kennedy, kept the Senate sides of things blue. However, since Gov. William Weld and Lt. Gov. Paul Cellucci took power in 1991, the GOP held the executive office right until Democrat Deval Patrick defeated Kerrey Healey in 2006.
Part of the shock of the result may come from the perception of the Bay State Senate delegation as an unbreachable Democratic redoubt, but the power of Kennedy’s 47-year incumbency throws off all calculations. Even the most die-hard GOPers would be hard pressed to claim that he would not, if he had survived, romped home for re-election, So that raises the awkward idea that this election might have been at least in part about the relative merits of Brown and Coakley. It’s also doubtful that Brown should get too comfy: Five percent on the back of what Republicans are calling a mid-term wave of anti-Obama sentiments scarcely places him out of the woods come 2012 (this is, after all, only a special election.)
The Texas GOP response has been suitably hyperbolic. Gov Rick Perry said the result was “especially significant to stop the ill-advised health care bill that will cost states billions of dollars,” although Brown would probably like to be considered as more than just a one-issue, no-voting naysayer. Congressman Lamar Smith seemed to dabble in haiku with a press release/shopping list of what Democrats should learn (“Moderation beats extremism/Common sense triumphs partisanship/Voters can exercise real independence” and the real gem, “One-party control leads to arrogance.” Yeah, probably shouldn’t repeat that one too often around Republican Gov. Perry, Republican Speaker Joe Straus and Republican Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst.)
Travis County Republican Party Chair Rosemary Edwards chimed in that “No Democrat is safe in this year’s political atmosphere, not even a Democrat in the bluest of states” and, by extension, therefore no Democrat in the bluest of counties. (Point of fact, Massachusetts is technically a commonwealth.)
The most sensible response was actually from the Republican Party of Texas. While losing points for making the obvious statement that “Brown proved that it wasn’t ‘the Kennedy seat'” (actually, the absence of any Kennedy from the ballot proved that), there’s some sage advice: “Brown won by running a great campaign.” If any party thinks that a national wave gets them anything except wet, they’re in for a rude surprise. Winning elections is hard work.
As for the Democrats, the rending of hair and gnashing of teeth over this one lost seat reminds this writer of what a college buddy said about his dating dry spell: “If only desperation was an aphrodisiac.” The moaning and complaining is unlikely to appeal to voters especially since, in legislative terms, the Democrats are still class president and valedictorian. Just a reminder, the Democrats hold the White House, plus the U.S. Senate with an 18 seat majority, the House of Representatives with 78 seats, plus 26 of the 50 state governorships and 27 lieutenant governorships. They have total control of 27 state legislatures and split control of eight others, plus Democrats are the executives of two of the five territories, and the mayor of D.C. is a Democrat.
Of course, the grandest dramatic irony of this all may be that, according to Andrew Gelman‘s analysis over at FiveThirtyEight.com, Brown’s voting record in the Massachusetts legislature puts him on the left wing of the Republican Party. Wonder how long it will be before he gets called a RINO by one of his new workmates? After all, Republican pundits are arguing that very point right now.
This article appears in January 15 • 2010.
