Another day, another poll in the race between Republican Governor Rick Perry and his Democratic challenger Bill White. But in a shocking upset for the incumbent, the new numbers have them in a virtual tie, 42% to 42% with a 4%+/- margin of error. No wonder Governor Good Hair is running from the press.
What’s most interesting here is this isn’t exactly some left-wing think tank. The Texas Watch Foundation, which commissioned the study, is a non-partisan consumer rights non-profit, while pollsters Hill Research Consultants count “various Republican Party committees at the local, state, and national levels” among their client list.
Much as the tendency is to treat this as an outrigger, this has to be an uncomfortable result for Perry and company. His high numbers from Rasmussen keep catching the statewide media’s eye, but they come with serious questions about their methodology. Plus, as a coastal resident, White’s been hammering on the issue of homeowners insurance for quite a while. This could be exactly the kind of pocket book issue for which his campaign has been looking.
It’s also an issue on which Perry may find himself on the back foot. His continued determination to avoid any kind of debate with White is starting to head into self-pastiche, especially with the latest announcement that he’s generously giving White until Sept. 15 to comply with his demands to hand over all his tax records from 1993 to 1998. Much as Perry may gripe about White denying the people of Texas a debate, it’s actually him engaging in stalling tactics.
It’s not just debates he’s avoiding: He’s getting skittish around the press, period. Recently, reporters for WFAA Channel 8 in Dallas attempted to get Perry on the record in a recent trip to Killeen about, guess what, homeowners insurance. Perry’s response? To quote Monty Python and the Holy Grail, “Run away, run away.”
Of course, Democrats were quick to jump on this, with a new ad comparing Perry’s grandstanding on the issue of home insurance rates in 2006 with his new-found reticence to debate the issue.
Considering the lack of active campaigning and media availability, the GOP seems to be working on a principal of “Pretend the election doesn’t exist, and maybe it will go away.” The strategy seems clear: Rely on the “Generic Republican versus generic Democrat” polling numbers that seem to be leaning their way, rather than putting their candidates out there for tough questioning or potential ridicule. Or even soft questioning.
Unfortunately for Gov. Good Hair, it’s now going to be hard to think about his Killeen fast exit without thinking about another debate dodger: Arizona Governor Jan Brewer, whose political inheritance may be summed up in the words, “OK, thank you all.”
This article appears in September 3 • 2010.
