Edited by Louisa C. Brinsmade, with contributions this week by
Roseana Auten and Andrea Barnett. THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN: With a headline that read,
“Economist Ray Perryman is Hailed as a Genius – for Self Promotion,” the
Wall Street Journal‘s Texas Journal section recently delivered a glaring
spotlight on the career of the infamous economist cum marketing
consultant.
Austinites may recall Dr. Marlin Ray Perryman’s efforts in
1991 against the Save Our Springs ordinance; a report he produced, predicting
that the SOS ordinance would be a factor in a “stop-growth scenario,” was used
by the Chamber of Commerce to campaign against voter passage of the water
quality ordinance. Chamber literature at the time misquoted Perryman, saying
the economist warned that passage of SOS alone would be responsible for the
loss of 131,000 jobs.
Despite Perryman’s prediction about SOS and the “no-growth
scenario,” Austin has since 1991 been one of the fastest-growing cities in the
nation, and has the lowest unemployment rate in the state at 2.9%. Last week,
WSJ reporter Laura Johannes asked Angelos Angelou, in charge of economic
development for the Chamber, whether the SOS ordinance cost the city in terms
of companies moving here. “Absolutely not,” Angelou replied candidly.
The WSJ article on Perryman, which ran May 10,
examines the economist’s claim that in 1982, at the height of the economic boom
in Texas, he predicted the Texas oil bust coming later in the decade; it was a
“prediction” he used to promote his own million-dollar career as a economist
for hire. However, as the article points out, Perryman’s only reference to
changes in Texas’ oil and gas market in 1982 occured in a forecast table
showing the state’s mining activity slipping by 0.9% that year, a figure that
was never explained in the text of Perryman’s report at the time. Even Perryman
admits, “It got a whole lot worse than we thought it would.”
According to the WSJ article, although Perryman has
produced many successful economic forecasts, his reputation has been tainted by
a series of discredited reports, namely for Central Power & Light Co., a
subsidiary of Central & South West Corp., and for Southwestern Bell. Both
companies went before the Public Utility Commission (PUC) with rate hike cases
supported by reports from Perryman’s company, the Perryman Group. In both
cases, PUC staff economists declared the Perryman’s reports to be
“incomprehensible” and “unreliable.”
One of those staff economists, Dr. August Ankum, told
WSJ that Perryman has little chance of future success before the
commission. “Nobody in their right mind would bring him back, because they know
he would be clobbered.” Ankum is now at MCI Corp.’s Chicago office.
In his own defense, Perryman told WSJ that
his reports are based on a computer model of the Texas economy, using “the best
data available,” and that he wouldn’t hesitate to go back before the
commission. “I am a public figure involved in very controversial issues,” he
added. – L.C.B.
AMPHIBIAN ACTIVIST: Austin’s U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
(FWS) had an unusual guest last week: a giant, seven-foot Barton Springs
Sala-mander visited the state agency’s office on May 17, the last day for
public comment on the proposal to list the salamander as endangered. It may
have been only a papier-m�ch� salamander wrapped around chicken
wire, but it had genuine Barton Creek algea hanging out of its mouth. Most
people walking past missed it, as it blended in with the mauve carpet and light
pink wallpaper. Only a month old, its skin was cracked in places as though it
were already dead and decaying, probably from being dragged along the street
during a recent demonstration at the Barton Creek Parade of Homes. One official
stopped to take its picture, asking the Earth First!ers who brought it to smile
for the camera.
The EF!ers were there with their papier-m�ch�
friend to urge officials to list the salamander before the agency’s August 17
deadline on the issue. The listing would have to occur on an emergency basis,
since the Clinton administration put a six-month moratorium on endangered
species listings. The moratorium ends in October.
While the number of these tiny amphibians living in nearby
springs continues to decrease, the listing process has gone through one delay
after another since February 1994. The EF!ers, however, are not deterred. “Not
even this Congress would pass a moratorium prohibiting emergency listings from
occurring,” says EF! activist Robert Singleton.
On May 17, the environmentalists were given a conference room
to review the variety of documents they asked for: copies of city surveys on
the numbers of salamanders living in Barton Springs, and letters against
listing the salamander (until that morning, there had been none supporting the
listing). By noon, however, the EF!ers had gathered 53 letters supporting the
listing, and, in typical EF! fashion, were contemplating writing comments on
their seven-foot, pink pal, entering it into the FWS’ official file.
In the latest survey from the city’s Environmental and
Conservation Services Department, divers found only 12 salamanders in Barton
Springs on May 2, down from 150 in November, 1992. – A.B.
BEATING THE ODDS: Despite the fact that girls comprise 56% of
National Merit Scholarship competitors, over half of this year’s semifinalists
are boys. The National Center for Fair & Open Testing, or FairTest, has
long charged that the Preliminary Scholastic Assessment Test (PSAT), the
instrument used to select the semifinalists, is constructed with a bias against
women.
Last year, FairTest filed a gender discrimination complaint
with the U.S. Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights, alleging that
the test makers – the Educational Testing Service and College Entrance
Examination Board – are using their federal grants unlawfully. A press release
from FairTest says that “the case is currently under active investigation by
the OCR regional office in New York City.”
Last year, 57.1% of boys and 38.6% of girls in the U.S. were
eligible for a National Merit Scholarship (the gender-neutral names of the
remaining 4.3% rendered them into the “unknown” category). But the gender
breakdown this year has improved considerably. Boys comprise 53.4% of this
year’s semifinalists, 42.3% are girls, and 4.3% are unknown.
In Texas, the figures are a little different from the
national breakdown: 55% are boys, and 40% are girls. For the last several
years, AISD has produced four times the number of scholarship finalists and
semifinalists than would be expected for a district of its size. Last year, the
gender breakdown of AISD semifinalists was skewed, even in comparison with the
national average: 63.4% were boys, 26.8% were girls, and 9.8% were unknown.
Now, things may finally be starting to turn around. This
year’s breakdown is skewed a little more toward girls. Out of 117 AISD
semifinalists, 48% were girls, 40% were boys, and 12% were unknown.
– R.A.
This article appears in May 26 • 1995 and May 26 • 1995 (Cover).