We are approaching “shit or get off the pot” weeks for Austin FC as it pertains to making the MLS Cup Playoffs.
Over the weekend, the football club squandered an opportunity for some free – or, at least, heavily discounted – points, going on the road against CF Montreal, which has been practically, if not mathematically, eliminated from the Eastern Conference playoff picture for weeks. Defensive lapses cost the Verde and Black, who fell by a score of 3-2 despite a bounce-back goal from Myrto Uzuni and a beauty by Owen Wolff.
As Uzuni put it after the match, “We lost one final today, but we have still eight finals [remaining].” (Best not to think too deep into that one.)
The result leaves Austin in the most precarious position of all, clinging on to the ninth and final playoff spot, with rival teams below desperate to capitalize on ATXFC’s shortcomings. An enormous matchup against eighth-place San Jose looms on Saturday at Q2 Stadium in what would be – if the status quo holds – a preview of the 8/9 play-in game. Following that, a steady diet of more pivotal matches against playoff hopefuls.
Things could turn around at any moment. The Verde and Black could rattle off three straight wins, surge to the safety of a top-seven spot and leave both the playoff line and the play-in game behind. It wouldn’t come as any massive shock.
But what if the club continues to falter down the stretch, and once again fails to secure a postseason place, perhaps falling just a single slot outside the top nine?
That very scenario occurred just last season, and it led directly to a coaching change. Would the same consequences come to pass this time? Is there a chance Nico Estévez’s time in Austin ends after just one season?
It’s rare, but it does happen around MLS. It happened earlier this season, as a matter of fact, when St. Louis City moved on from Olof Mellberg after just 15 games.
A reminder of how ATX sporting director Rodolfo Borrell began his explanation after releasing Josh Wolff from his duties: “The expectation to get into the playoffs, I guess, is the minimum expectation of every team in MLS.”
Context, of course, also matters. If Austin FC was a young, inexpensive roster (à la Montreal), or if the club had been ravaged by injuries (LA Galaxy), it would be easier to forgive a missed playoffs.
But Austin FC is not a young team. A majority of its usual starters are 30 and above. And apart from the season-ending knee injury suffered by Brandon Vazquez, the rest of the club’s top players have remained mostly healthy and available.
But the Vazquez injury does loom large. Prior to it, Estévez struggled to design an effective attack that included both Vazquez and fellow DP striker Uzuni. Combined, they represent over $20 million of Anthony Precourt’s money that Borrell has invested in the club.
If Borrell is beginning to feel some of that heat, he may prefer to bring in a new coach with a clearer vision for the two forwards to complement each other, when Vazquez returns next season.
Another option could be to return Estévez for next season, but on a short leash that could snap at the first sign of a losing streak. But that’s a difficult spot for any coach to operate in, and it may be healthier to make a clean break in the offseason, if things do indeed take a turn south.
Austin FC plays San Jose Earthquakes at home Saturday, Aug. 30, 7:30pm.
This article appears in August 29 • 2025.
