Things are about to get serious for Austin FC.
After an encouraging showing in the Leagues Cup followed by a break of two and a half weeks, the Verde and Black return to the pitch Saturday primed to begin a nine-game stretch run to close out the 2024 MLS regular season.
It might very well be the most important stretch of games in the club’s history, and certainly the most consequential of Josh Wolff’s coaching career.
All season long, representatives of the club – including Wolff himself – have reiterated a single baseline goal: Make the playoffs. Failing to do so will likely cost the fourth-year coach his job.
Austin FC enters the final quarter of the season out of the playoff positions, but only just. The club sits 10th with 31 points, two back from the final postseason spot. So just what will it take for Wolff to get El Tree over the line?
Since ATX joined the league in 2021, it’s taken an average of 43.3 points to earn a top-nine position in either conference. That means the Verde and Black must take a minimum of 13 points from their final nine games to give themselves a decent enough chance of sneaking into the 8 vs. 9 play-in game. (Hey, playoffs is playoffs, and ATX is in no position to be picky.)
Thirteen points out of a possible 27. Four wins and a draw out of nine games. Really, how hard could it be?
Probably a lot harder than Wolff would prefer.
Of Austin’s nine remaining opponents, eight are currently in playoff positions in their respective conferences. That includes each of the current top six seeds in the Western Conference.
Only four of the final games are at Q2 Stadium. El Tree hosts Vancouver, Houston, Salt Lake, and Colorado to close out its home schedule. On the other hand, the club will travel to Nashville, Toronto, LAFC, Portland, and LA Galaxy. So where exactly do the points come from?
MLS coaches, Wolff included, often cite a specific formula for success in the league: average two points at home and one point on the road. If Austin FC manages that, it will net exactly 13 points and, we assume, a playoff spot.
That means taking, at worst, two wins and two draws from the four home games. Austin FC is a perfect 5-0 all time against rivals Houston Dynamo at Q2 Stadium, so that’s an obvious place to start. Finding a second home win is less clear, but ATX is going to have to knock off some better teams to earn a spot in the top nine.
On the road, just two wins out of five will do. Austin can make things much easier on itself by winning its first two matches away from home, both coming after multiple weeks off.
The first and most critical comes Saturday night when ATX takes on Nashville SC, currently sitting 12th in the Eastern Conference with just six wins on the season. That’s followed by a trip to Toronto on Sept. 14 (following another two-week international break) to face the only other team on ATX’s remaining schedule with fewer points than Austin itself.
There is a legitimate path to the playoffs for a bolstered Austin FC squad coming off big wins in the Leagues Cup, but the margin for error is razor-thin. It’s all business from here on out.
This article appears in August 23 • 2024.
