Texas is still rural and/or conservative enough to give John McCain a solid win here, but there are notable trends that could bode well for Texas Democrats in the future.

Flips (R to D)

Of Texas’ 254 counties, eight that went for Bush in 2004 shifted to Obama (and none went the other direction). This is especially significant because four of those counties are among the state’s most populous, including three of the Top 4 (Bexar, Dallas, and Harris).

County: Registered Voters

Harris: 1,959,284

Dallas: 1,206,543

Bexar: 931,118

Cameron: 174,428

Val Verde: 28,590

Kleberg: 18,905

Frio: 10,528

Reeves: 6,464

This shows that Texas is trending in the same direction as the rest of the nation, with urban areas going Democrat and facing off against more conservative suburban and rural areas. Among Texas’ 15 most populous counties (bold outline on the map), seven went for Obama this year; only three of them went for Kerry.

15 Most Populous Counties

1) Harris (D)

2) Dallas (D)

3) Tarrant (R)

4) Bexar (D)

5) Travis (D)

6) Collin (R)

7) El Paso (D)

8) Denton (R)

9) Hidalgo (D)

10) Fort Bend (R)

11) Montgomery (R)

12) Williamson (R)

13) Nueces (R)

14) Galveston (R)

15) Cameron (D)

This article appears in November 14 • 2008.

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