The Students Vanish: Following The Class Of 1998

Critics of the Texas Education Agency’s dropout reporting system present as Exhibit A the Enrollment Gap. On average, Texas high schools produce only two seniors for every three freshmen who enter. For minorities, the attrition is even higher — nearly 50% for Hispanic students. Below are the enrollment histories for the 1998 senior class, divided by ethnicity.

African-American

Grade & Year	Enrollment	Change From Previous Year
7 (1992-93)	40,781	NA
8 (1993-94)	39,230	-4%
9 (1994-95)	* 49,666	+27%
10 (1995-96)	35,935	– 28%
11 (1996-97)	30,624	– 15%
12 (1997-98)	27,848	– 9%
% of Students Lost: 7-12		32%
% of Students Lost: 9-12		44%

Hispanic

Grade & Year	Enrollment	Change From Previous Year
7 (1992-93)	95,418	NA
8 (1993-94)	93,173	– 2%
9 (1994-95)	* 119,234	+28%
10 (1995-96)	84,280	– 29%
11 (1996-97)	70,910	– 16%
12 (1997-98)	64,148	– 10%
% of Students Lost: 7-12		33%
% of Students Lost: 9-12		46%

White

Grade & Year	Enrollment	Change From Previous Year
7 (1992-93)	137,375	NA
8 (1993-94)	135,208	– 2%
9 (1994-95)	* 136,491	+1%
10 (1995-96)	127,569	-7%
11 (1996-97)	117,278	-8%
12 (1997-98)	108,383	-8%
% of Students Lost: 7-12		21%
% of Students Lost: 9-12		21%

* Ninth Grade enrollment is disproportionately high in all categories, but especially for minorities. The primary reason is the large number of students — especially minorities — who must repeat that grade (see “Hitting the Wall”).

If TEA’s dropout numbers are accurate, they should account for a large percentage of the empty desks. The match wouldn’t be perfect, of course: Kids can leave the system a variety of ways without showing up as a dropout — transferring out of state or to a private school, entering a GED program, or schooling at home. But TEA’s numbers aren’t even close (see column below).