The Power of Boxes

Not all precincts are created equal: Due to population, voter turnout, and usually both, some boxes are particularly rich in votes and crucial to win. In these precincts, the tale of who won and why often can be found – especially in victories as solid as those of Lee Leffingwell and Chris Riley. The power boxes are outlined.

(Totals for Josiah Ingalls and David Buttross omitted.)

(Totals may not add up due to undervotes or voters who don’t live in the city of Austin.)

Mayor

Not a whole lot of complex analysis needed here, and this may be what convinced Brewster McCracken to throw in the towel: Of the 20 biggest boxes in Austin, Leffingwell won them all, and in the ones marked in bold, he won majorities, including a whopping 71% in the 332nd Precinct.

By contrast, Carole Keeton Strayhorn and McCracken won majorities in only four precincts each, mostly in low-turnout boxes.

Place 1

Leffingwell’s story is repeated here with Riley: a clean sweep of the 20 precincts that matter most. This not only says a lot about which areas of town control Austin’s politics; it also says something about the poor voter turnout in other areas and possibly among Austin’s Latinos – a group that, given its size, really ought to be more of a force in local elections.

Looking at the map, it’s apparent that Perla Cavazos did best in the Southeast, but that just doesn’t count for much – the 23 precincts in which she won or tied cast only 2,888 votes total, less than this list’s Top 3 combined. There’s likely a message in there about the need for single-member districts.

MUNICIPAL ELECTION RESULTS BY REGION

* Total number of voters and turnout percentages are not exact due to undervotes and voters who don’t live in the city of Austin.

Figures shown in bold indicate the region in which each candidate had his or her best showing in terms of percentage.

Download these election results and maps (PDF ).

This article appears in May 15 • 2009.