The November Election

Last week’s “Naked City” reported on the contribution and expenditure reports on congressional races of importance to Austinites, noting that the deck seems to be stacked against Democrat Rick Noriega‘s challenge to U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (whose war chest is almost 10 times larger than his), and in Congressional District 10 (Austin to Houston), Democrat Larry Joe Doherty is keeping pace with incumbent Michael McCaul in donations (both took in about a quarter of a million, plus McCaul threw in $60,000 more of his own money).

More of the July 15 reports have since been posted, allowing deeper analyses of local races:

• Here’s an interesting tidbit: Who’s giving to McCaul and Doherty? For LJD, 84% comes from individuals, while only 3% comes from political action committees. Much different story for McCaul: 57% from individuals, 36% from political action committees.

• That race is a stark contrast to District 31 (far North Austin up to Stephenville), where the $12,595 raised by Democrat Brian Ruiz this quarter is just a 10th of what Rep. John Carter garnered. Cash on hand: Carter, $274,233; Ruiz (gulp), $1,056.

• It’s really interesting to see how certain seats in the area that once favored Republicans, or were at least highly competitive, have apparently been given up for dead by the GOP. Remember in 2002 when upstart Democrat Patrick Rose narrowly unseated right-wing ideologue state Rep. Rick Green by a mere 335 votes in District 45 (Hays, Blanco, and Caldwell counties)? Rose now appears entrenched: He’s sitting on a bank balance of $807,809, while Republican opponent Matt Young has a piddling $27,272.

• Similarly, Dem incumbent Donna Howard in District 48 (once the property of Todd Baxter) has $160,868 available to pummel the $11,266 of Pam Waggoner. Rep. Mark Strama, who barely took down Republican Jack Stick in District 50 in 2004, has only $53,784 to play with, but that looks huge compared to challenger Jerry Mikus‘ $2,436. A little more competitive is District 47 (southwest Travis Co.), long a stronghold of former GOP Rep. Terry Keel: Democratic incumbent Valinda Bolton has raised $120,016 since the beginning of the year ($86,323 still on hand), but Terry’s sister-in-law Donna Keel rounded up a respectable $49,261 ($34,430 on hand).

• The big shocker: District 52, long the Williamson County fortress of the GOP’s Mike Krusee (who is stepping down), looks highly competitive. We expect more Republican dollars to start rolling in to shore up reserves Bryan Daniel had to spend winning a four-way primary, but right now the $41,432 he raised this year ($32,421 on hand) looks pretty paltry against the $138,869 ($129,740 on hand) brought in by Democrat Diana Maldonado. Perhaps all those liberals who are getting priced out of the Austin housing market are turning Williamson blue?

• At the Travis County level, Dem Karen Huber better get on the stick with fundraising if she really wants to take the lone Republican out of the Commissioners Court. She raised $52,813 (including $10,000 from her husband), but her remaining $38,248 looks to get stomped by Gerald Daugher­ty‘s $288,289. Unless donors start giving big, she’ll have to rely on Obama’s coattails in November.

Campaign $$

For federal races, contribution period is the past quarter, April-June. For state and local races, it means since the beginning of the year. – L.N.

(i) incumbent

* includes $60,000 loan from self

** includes $100,000 loan from self

*** includes $13,112 from self

**** includes $10,000 loan from husband

This article appears in July 25 • 2008.