Here’s a fun little time-waster.
Last week, as the whole world knows by now, our not-quite-history-buff governor incorrectly stated that Texas had a “unique” right to secede from the United States; he apparently was thinking about the treaty that brought Texas into the Union, and a clause that does not give us a secession right but does allow the Lone Star State to split up into five states.
This notion fascinated Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight.com – a blog that made a name for itself by analyzing polling data leading up to the 2008 presidential election – so this morning, he conjectures how such a division would impact the presidential and congressional races.
The most obvious impact would be that the new configuration would send eight more senators to Washington, but he digs into 2008 election results and also figures out – based on boundaries of his own creation – how it would affect the balance of power between Republicans and Democrats.
It’s all fantasy, of course, but if you’re a geek for both stats and elections like me, it’s an interesting read.
This article appears in April 24 • 2009.