As we went to press last week, city demographer Lila Valencia was busy holding forth on Austin’s 2020 census data and what this means for our city and surrounding areas. Not surprisingly, the numbers backed up what already knew: The region continues to grow, with pain and displacement falling disproportionately on Austin’s communities of color.
Per the census, the area’s biggest population driver in the last 10 years was the influx of non-Hispanic whites, largely due to in-migration from elsewhere in Texas and the U.S. (international in-migration decreased in the same period). Austin’s Asian population was the fastest-growing single-race group since the 2010 census, today making up 8.9% of our population. At the same time, the percentages of African Americans and Hispanics shrank, now down to 6.9% and 32.5% respectively.
We’ve had strong job growth and low unemployment, but the median home price in Austin is now at an eye-watering $624,000, and a two-bedroom unit goes for roughly $2,018 a month.
Most of the growth occurred in outlying areas, though the Domain, Mueller, and Downtown all gained some population due to increased housing density. The census also confirmed that African American and Hispanic populations continue to be pushed farther out, away from their historic neighborhoods, with non-Hispanic whites taking over more areas east of I-35.
In the pain vs. gain department, median home prices shot up 154% in the last 10 years, with the median home price within the Austin city limits pegged last week at an eye-watering $624,000. Over the same period, median rents increased 49%, with a two-bedroom unit now going for roughly $2,018 a month.
On the gain side, we’ve had strong job growth and low unemployment. But as the above numbers demonstrate, none of that helps if you’re not in a tech job pulling down at least six figures a year. The area also added more housing units than in prior decades, but is still struggling to keep pace with a steady influx of all those wealthier, whiter people who keep showing up.
Why does this matter? Well, for one thing, these numbers determine what share we’ll get of the $1.5 trillion in federal funds that are allocated based on census data. In fact, city leaders think Austin was undercounted at 961,855 residents total, and are requesting a review, which, if they’re right, could potentially pry loose a few more federal dollars.
In short, it’s a lot of growing pains, with very little under our direct control and no brake pedal in sight. Let’s take it as a sober reminder to make sure our policies moving forward are focused on everyday Austinites and low-income residents – not just the burgeoning wealthy who really should be able to take care of themselves.
For all the numbers, maps, and graphs, Dr. Valencia’s full presentation should be up soon on the Imagine Austin Speaker Series website at austintexas.gov/department/imagine-austin-speaker-series.
VMU Revamp Postponed to June
On a related note, the revamped vertical mixed-use ordinance, which had been slated to hit the City Council agenda this Thursday, has now been postponed until June 9. Helmed by Council Member Ann Kitchen, the draft would strengthen the city’s existing VMU ordinance with the goal of adding more housing along transit corridors, including an increased percentage of affordable units, at deeper levels of affordability.
Representing many months of work by city staff and housing advocates, the draft would retain the city’s current compatibility standards, but allow for future discussions related to compatibility, as Kitchen noted in a Council message board post. However, last week CM Chito Vela posted two amendments to the message board that would completely eliminate compatibility for building height and parking requirements, obviously controversial changes for many older neighborhoods adjacent to corridors.
Vela’s proposals are no doubt well intentioned, and we’re all feeling increasingly desperate in the light of the newly released median home prices. But these amendments would enact sweeping citywide changes that haven’t been vetted through the traditional public process and would affect – and potentially displace – an unknown number of residents. At the very least, we need a clear understanding of how these amendments would impact existing market-affordable housing along and near transit routes before we take the lid off.
Second, we don’t want to inadvertently undercut Austin’s Affordability Unlocked ordinance, which is designed to provide many more deeply affordable units than VMU, in exchange for waivers of development regs very similar to the ones now proposed by Vela. If for-profit developers can reap the same benefits while providing far fewer affordable units, how likely are we to get deeply affordable projects on the corridors? And when it comes to income levels, which residents are more apt to use public transit anyway?
Personally, if I ran the zoo, I’d reserve all transit-adjacent properties for Affordability Unlocked (but of course, it’s Texas, so we can’t). Failing that, it behooves us to keep what little bargaining power we have for deeply affordable projects, not give it away in a rushed process, the full implications of which we haven’t had time to identify.
With all that in mind, Council agreed at their Tuesday work session to postpone the VMU ordinance until June 9 to allow for more discussion among Council members and more community engagement. Mayor Pro Tem Alison Alter suggested creating small Council working groups that would include members typically on opposing sides of land use issues to brainstorm areas of agreement. Council also agreed to schedule another discussion for the May 17 work session to allow members to daylight relevant proposals.
If Vela’s amendments are solid, they can withstand the genuine community conversation they deserve and the time it takes to get them right. The postponement gives them – and us – that chance.
Project Connect‘s working groups continue to meet, sharing plans for specific transit stations and corridors and gathering public feedback. Next up is the Lady Bird Lake Bridge to carry the Blue Line trains out to the airport, on Tuesday, April 26, 5:30pm on Zoom. Get info and register at projectconnect.com/get-involved.
The city is continuing work toward relocating the Dougherty Arts Center; hear about the latest design updates Monday, April 25, at 7pm on Zoom and Facebook Live; more info at facebook.com/austincityparks.
ACC Highland is having their grand opening Community Open House this Saturday, April 23, 10am-2pm, with hands-on demonstrations, tours, panel discussions and workshops, and info about employment and class registration. See austincc.edu/openhouse.
This article appears in April 22 • 2022.