Could the days of Republican dominance in Texas be coming to an end? As we’ve noted before, the GOP’s majority in the Texas House of Representatives is down to a slender five (out of 150) seats.
Another big prize for the Democrats would be cracking the complete stranglehold the Republicans have over every single statewide elected office – and today, a poll by Rasmussen Reports indicates that Houston state Rep. Rick Noriega actually has a real shot at unseating incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn. Another Rasmussen poll shows what would have been pure fantasy just a couple of elections ago: Texas could actually be in play in the presidential race.
In a telephone survey of 500 likely Texas voters on May 1, Cornyn polled at 47%, Noriega at 43%. Margin of error is plus/minus 4 points.
In the presidential race, Sen. John McCain polls at 49% versus Sen. Hillary Clinton’s 43%, and 48% versus Sen. Barack Obama’s 43%. (Same sample, same MOE.) Could we actually get visits and ads from presidential candidates here in Texas during a general election? It would be the first time I could remember such a thing in the 21 years since I passed legal voting age.
To be sure, this state still leans conservative. And I’d really like to see a bigger polling sample to make this really believable. But for the Dems to even get within spitting distance is a major accomplishment for a party that was being read last rites earlier this decade. Or perhaps, more accurately, a non-accomplishment for the GOP and its growing track record of incompetence.
This article appears in May 2 • 2008.