The new 25th Congressional District is really two districts with two heads – an ethnically mixed region based in Austin and stretching south to Live Oak Co. and an almost exclusively Hispanic region based in McAllen and stretching north to Duval Co. In both area and population, the northern region of CD 25 makes up just over half the total district.

Likewise, the two big urban areas – southeast Travis Co. at one end, western Hidalgo Co. at the other – are almost identical in size, with Austin’s share being marginally larger.

Given this symmetry, it’s possible that in a close race, the winner will be decided in the middle – the district’s rural counties, which, ethnicity aside, have fairly little “community of interest” with either East Austin or the Rio Grande Valley.

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