Every year, one in six ninth-graders statewide fail to become sophomores — a rate of failure twice as high as at any other grade level. Minority students are hit the hardest, repeating ninth grade over twice as often as whites. Not surprisingly, the dropout rate for ninth-graders is also far higher than for other grades: Research shows that students who flunk at least one year of school are 50% more likely to drop out; if they fail twice, it’s a virtual certainty. Freshman failure is an even bigger problem at urban schools with large minority populations: About half of incoming freshmen at Austin’s Johnston High School never move on to 10th grade, and only about a third of them reach graduation.
| 1993-94 | 1994-95 | 1995-96 | 1996-97 | |||||
| White | 10,863 | 8.9% | 11,764 | 9.2% | 13,409 | 9.9% | 13,229 | 9.6% |
| African American | 8,921 | 24.0% | 9,190 | 23.2% | 10,414 | 24.2% | 10,506 | 24.2% |
| Hispanic | 21,696 | 24.3% | 23,944 | 25.0% | 27,603 | 25.9% | 29,076 | 25.9% |
| Other Minority | 524 | 8.2% | 534 | 7.8% | 647 | 8.7% | 669 | 8.5% |
| Total | 42,004 | 16.5% | 45,432 | 16.8% | 52,073 | 17.8% | 53,480 | 17.8% |
This article appears in May 14 • 1999 and May 14 • 1999 (Cover).