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Handicapping Congress
The razor’s-edge race for the White House has been made all the more interesting by the equally close contest for Capitol Hill. Imagine the scene: A president who lost the popular vote, but who won in the Electoral College by two votes, delivers his State of the Union message to a Senate divided 50-50 between the parties, and to a House where control is in the hands of its one socialist — or its undeclared Libertarian.
Don’t laugh. The Democrats are closer to retaking both the House and the Senate than they have been at any point in this campaign — but not so close that they could take firm command, which will give new meaning to the concept of “divided government.” According to the latest line, Democrats may take exactly the seven net seats they need to have a one-vote majority in the House, which is really no majority at all. (“Net seats” are, of course, seats switching one way minus seats switching the other way.)
You’d never know any of this in Texas, where the only seat that has even a slight chance of flipping is the 5th District, on the eastern edge of the Dallas Metroplex, where GOP incumbent Pete Sessions is again facing a strong challenge from a Hispanic Democrat trying to capitalize on the district’s demographic changes. But Regina Montoya-Coggins, like Victor Morales, who followed a Senate race with a challenge of Sessions in 1998, appears to be stalling out after a fast start.
So the state’s House delegation should remain as it is, 17-13 Democrat, which is really 15-15 because two of the Ds — Rockwall’s Ralph Hall and Abilene’s Charlie Stenholm — have for years voted with Republicans on almost every issue of importance. Elsewhere things are not so dull. Of the two D.C.-insider rags that handicap such campaigns, Roll Call lists 19 House races as “toss-up,” while Congressional Quarterly has 18 marked as “No Clear Favorite.”
The six seats most likely to change sides are split between the parties — two Republicans in California, including impeachment star James Rogan, and one in Utah, balanced against Democratic seats in Virginia, New York, and New Jersey. But most of the remaining tossup seats are held by Republicans, which is why Democratic hopes are high.
Voters, as they are in the presidential race, are approaching congressional contests with ambivalence and confusion. One illustrative piece of evidence: Six House members are vacating their seats to run for Senate — in California, Florida, Michigan, New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. Four are Republicans and two are Democrats. But all six of the races for the seats they vacated are too close to call. And none of the representatives are running better than even in their Senate races, three of which are for open seats.
So a juggernaut this is not, and it would need to be for either donkey or elephant to be the undisputed king of the Capitol Hill beasts. Which brings us to Bernie Sanders of Vermont, the House’s one socialist — oops, “left-leaning independent” — and his only third-party colleague, centrist ex-Democrat Virgil Goode of Virginia, both of whom will have amazing leverage in a House split by one vote. Actually, every member of Congress would have leverage, including our own maverick Republican Ron Paul, who could officially declare himself a Libertarian and mess with everyone’s plans. As Roll Call points out, the stage is set for something that’s never happened in U.S. history — a Congress that flips control during the session if one member dies, gets jailed, or switches parties.
Meanwhile, the Senate, which was supposed to remain safely in Republican hands, is now suddenly in play and likewise poised for a down-the-middle split. (As we go to press, in fact, CQ has just regraded four races from “Leans Republican” to “No Clear Favorite.”) The GOP currently holds a 54-46 advantage, and a 50-50 tie would require some interesting alignments of the political planets. First, Hillary Clinton must win, which she easily could. Second, late Missouri Gov. Mel Carnahan would have to win from beyond the grave, which he might do now that his widow Jean Carnahan has agreed to “do what Mel would have wanted me to do,” and accept the appointment to the Senate that Democratic Gov. Roger Wilson promised her, should her late husband win the election. (Mel’s name remains on the ballot, although he died in a plane crash two weeks ago.)
Third, the Dems’ corporate-tycoon candidates — RealNetworks’ Maria Cantwell and Goldman Sachs’ John Corzine — need to buy, er, win tight contests in Washington and New Jersey, respectively. And fourth, the voters of Delaware need to decide that 79-year-old GOP incumbent William Roth needs a rest. (As in the House races, the Senate incumbents most obviously in trouble — Ds in Nevada and Virginia and Rs in Florida and Minnesota — split between the parties.)
Even that performance won’t be good enough for the Dems to make Mississippi Republican Trent Lott the Senate minority leader. That’s because, should Al Gore win, Connecticut’s Republican governor gets to name a replacement for Joe Lieberman. This means that control of Congress may be won or lost in, of all places, Montana, where Republican Sen. Conrad Burns is suddenly in a real race with political newcomer Brian Schweitzer, as the Big Sky State prepares for an almost unthinkable Democratic sweep of its high offices. There are about as many registered voters in Montana, by the way, as there are people in the city of Austin.
This article appears in November 3 • 2000.