Often, my most intractable but wrong notions occur when “I’m sure.” Being
perfect, I’m not likely to re-examine these convictions. An example: My view of
the NFC Central, derived from being a Bear fan, as unworthy of serious
consideration. I’ve viewed a long history of abject mediocrity; normally
possessing one decent team (Minnesota Vikings), occasionally two
(Chicago Bears). Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, and Tampa
Bay Buccaneers? Pro-football is pond scum. Dreadful teams in dreadful
divisions.
Thus blinded, I’ve missed the obvious. With each team featuring a top-rate
quarterback, the Central, long the domain of the 9-6 contest, is the most
competitive, wide-open division in the league. QB? What about Tampa Bay’s Trent
Dilfer? As a rookie, Dilfer put up some awful numbers — 18 INT’s juxtaposed
against four TD passes. Bad as this is, it’s a pretty average rookie season,
comparable to Aikman, Fouts, Bradshaw, and Plunkett as wee ones. They did okay.
The Bucs must sign underrated HB Errict Rhett. If Dilfer improves, as he
should, look for TB to be a .500 team — maybe better — for the first time
since Bevo was a… whatever. The rest of the division is a toss-up, bad
defense cum super-premium offense being the norm. With massive media
hype surrounding Brett Favre, the Packers are the designer choice. Favre
did have a great ’95. Of particular note — a 49 % completion rate on third
down, when teams know you’re gonna throw. The NFL’s toughest schedule, and no
running game, keeps pressure on Favre to keep throwing. No such problem with
the Lions. The league’s top-ranked offense has Barry Sanders to shred
teams who, choosing to slow Detroit’s devastating passing game, forget about
No. 20. Scott Mitchell’s receiving trio of Moore, Perriman, and Sanders is
unparalleled. No more warnings about Warren Moon’s age. If Marcus Allen can
still run, the ageless Moon can still be a star. Thirty-three TD passes, second
only to Favre, says he is. The Vikes always seem on the verge of a
chemistry meltdown. Come on, guys — let’s be pals. And then there’s the
Bears. Dave Wannstedt went to Chicago hailed as a defensive genius. The
’95 Bears couldn’t stop a Pop Warner attack, but this is the new-look Central,
so who cares? Chicago’s secondary may have been the worst to ever play the
game. If you fancy the smell of burnt toast, you liked Bear games in 1995. More
disturbing are four straight, lopsided defeats to the Packers and two to the
Lions. Ditka’s formula for success: control the division. I don’t imagine he’d
be pleased with those six defeats. If Dallas falters, next year’s Super Bowl
winner will come from the Central.
A thought: For the past decade, roughly the period of San Francisco dominance,
the West is exactly what I thought the Central was: One good/great team and the
bad/worse ones. Starting each season with seven or eight sure wins is helpful.
This divisional ineptness certainly helped the SF 49ers compile gaudy
records and the reward — home field advantages. By the end of ’95, SF looked
like a frat-league team, passing on every down, their running game nonexistent,
Steve Young taking a fearsome wrench-whipping in the process. Uncannily able to
gas-up-on-the-go, the Niners’ tank is almost dry. Gaping wounds, caused by
uncharacteristically horrid personnel decisions, fester. Charles Haley, Ricky
Watters, Deion Sanders, and Eric Davis equal four gone, not replaced, All-Pros.
No bueno. Kicking game’s embarrassing. Jeff Ward — the NFL calls!
Still, they’ll win 10-12 games, because the rest of the division sucks. The
Atlanta Falcons are in the wrong division, a Central offensive team
with, even by Central standards, an appalling defense. With Jeff George finally
developing into the player he was supposed to be, Atlanta features a blistering
offense. A trio of faceless receivers, plus UT-ex Eric Metcalf — finally given
a chance to move in the open field — give the Falcons a passing attack few
secondaries, none really, are able to cope with. Fullback Craig “Ironhead”
Heyward, who all but taco’d himself out of the league, has transformed into a
most effective runner and receiver. The Falcons score points and score points
and score points. Their opponents will score more. A poem: 15-32-41… Hut! The
New Orleans Saints are in a rut. Everett, Dombrosky, Mora…. Remember
the kicker that they cut? Bourbon Street, Hurricanes, puking red wine. The
Saints again are 7-9. Political correctness aside, Ram #1 pick Lawrence
Phillips, if half as good as advertised, will be the impact player of ’96.
TheL.A. Rams plucked weak-armed but safe Steve Walsh to hand off to
Phillips and toss a few 15-yard slants, about Walsh’s maximum range. The Rams’
D is probably the best in the West, which, with Phillips running the ball, will
keep them in most games. Not enough to threaten SF or Atlanta, though. With
expansion teams costing double the net worth of England, new owners get
something other than a colorful turd on a popsicle stick. Carolina, more
competitive than anyone imagined, is a prime example. The Panthers had
the third-best (though ancient) defense in the league. The offense, rated dead
last (a need addressed in the draft with seven picks) has a potentially
excellent QB in Kerry Collins. Just-signed #1 pick Tim Biakabutuka won’t be a
factor in ’96. No one will underrate Carolina this year. They won’t match last
year’s seven wins.
This article appears in August 23 • 1996 and August 23 • 1996 (Cover).