More Bill Bennett than Zogby
Want to get in on these odds? You could always place an old-fashioned, offshore, tax-free Internet bet through www.ladbrokes.com. This bastion of legalized gambling in the UK makes odds on everything from J.Lo's next boyfriend to the chances of NASA discovering life on Mars. The Brits give Dubya 4-to-7 odds (but before you get stirred up, know that Brits reverse their odds ... he's favored to win). Right now, Tony Blair is favored to maintain control of Parliament, at 1-to-20. The way things are looking for the PM, this could be a money winner.
Just like traditional polling data, these numbers can be daunting to the average citizen who hopes not only that his or her vote counts, but also that everything hasn't already been wrapped up by Election Day. But take heart, these guys do get it wrong, sort of. PoliticalOddsmaker.com called 2000 for Gore. And even the granddaddy of the field, Yale statistician Ray C. Fair's fairly infallible statistical oddsmaker www.fairmodel.econ.yale.edu, which has correctly calculated every presidential win going back to 1920, missed one big one in all these years: Bill Clinton's 1992 defeat of George I.