Place 3 by Precinct

Power Boxes Overpowered

As always, we take a look at what we call the "power boxes" – those precincts that produce the most votes. Usually, a strong run in these boxes – which tend to be in West Austin – is a formula for success.

Looking at this map, however, one can see that this didn't work out for Shade. She conquered West Austin, and of the top 20 power boxes, she took 11 (see list, below). The problem for her, though, was that Tovo took nearly everything else.

The voting precincts are numbered according to which Travis County Commis­sion­ers Court precinct they fall in: i.e., all boxes in Ron Davis' Precinct 1 are numbered in the 100s, all boxes in Margaret Gómez's Precinct 4 are in the 400s, and so on. In Court Precinct 1, Tovo nearly pulled a complete sweep, winning all but five boxes (one of which was a tie and another two had no votes). She came close to those numbers in Court Precinct 4, failing to win only six (again, one was a tie and another had no votes). Winning West Austin is usually a good strategy, but it's not enough on its own. – Lee Nichols

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Top Boxes

Precinct	Votes	Winner	%
342	950	Tovo	65.1%
256	831	Shade	67.9%
253	723	Shade	57.0%
332	702	Tovo	72.2%
354	671	Tovo	51.6%
231	643	Shade	59.9%
251	614	Shade	55.4%
278	604	Shade	59.4%
239	600	Tovo	71.2%
135	593	Tovo	57.5%
242	589	Tovo	67.7%
262	585	Shade	55.4%
367	584	Shade	59.6%
236	564	Tovo	64.7%
237	551	Shade	62.6%
273	539	Tovo	58.8%
214	537	Shade	55.1%
347	523	Shade	64.6%
210	521	Shade	55.3%
152	506	Tovo	61.5%

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Election Results: First Round vs. Run-off

JUNE 18 RUN-OFF

	Early	Election Day	Total
Kathie Tovo	13,648 (55.0%)	10,263 (58.1%)	23,911 (56.3%)
Randi Shade	11,183 (45.0%)	7,411 (41.9%)	18,594 (43.8%)
Total votes	24,831	17,674	42,505

GENERAL ELECTION

Kathie Tovo	6,230 (43.3%)	8,619 (48.9%)	14,849 (46.4%)
Randi Shade	4,883 (34.0%)	5,651 (32.0%)	10,534 (32.9%)
Total votes*	14,386	17,632	32,018

* includes tallies for Max Nofziger and Kris Bailey

The biggest number in the run-off was the 73% surge in early voting, which drew 10,500 more voters than in the general, including an unusual number of voters who hadn't voted in recent city elections, according to one source. Apparently those voters broke for Tovo, as what had been a 1,347-vote lead in May's early voting ballooned to a 2,465-vote cushion this time around. And there went the election-night suspense, because Shade was never going to do as well as Tovo on election day. Overall, Tovo's margin over Shade was 1,000 votes greater than it had been in May, but a bit down in percentage, dropping from a 13.5% lead to 12.5%. In the end, Tovo's 23,911 votes were more than either Chris Riley or Laura Morrison got in May. – Nick Barbaro

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Turn Out the (Same) Vote

The strangest thing about this run-off was that voting actually increased over the general election. That's a rarity – turnout usually plummets from the first round to the second. Listed here are the 20 precincts where the number of votes increased the most.

Shade's run-off loss certainly wasn't due to lack of effort – she clearly put in a strong get-out-the-vote effort. In fact, her voters actually increased by a greater percentage (77%) than Tovo's (61%). And as seen in the chart, those precincts with the biggest vote gains often favored Shade: She took 13 of that top 20. Still, she couldn't overcome Tovo's early lead and broader base of citywide support.

Only a handful of precincts experienced a drop in turnout, led by Rollingwood's box 347, which drew 657 voters in May but only 523 on Saturday with no Eanes ISD election to draw them to the polls. – L.N.

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Precincts With Biggest Gains

Precinct	Run-off votes	General election votes	Gain	Run-off winner (%)
256	831	495	336	Shade (67.9)
253	723	472	251	Shade (57.0)
354	671	425	246	Tovo (51.6)
278	604	367	237	Shade (59.4)
214	537	303	234	Shade (55.1)
342	950	716	234	Tovo (65.1)
251	614	402	212	Shade (55.4)
367	584	382	202	Shade (59.6)
210	521	338	183	Shade (55.3)
262	585	404	181	Shade (55.4)
231	643	466	177	Shade (59.9)
237	551	379	172	Shade (62.6)
337	453	282	171	Shade (53.2)
366	476	305	171	Shade (54.2)
239	600	437	163	Tovo (71.2)
332	702	539	163	Tovo (72.2)
328	474	318	156	Tovo (51.1)
273	539	387	152	Tovo (58.8)
327	425	275	150	Shade (59.8)
334	463	313	150	Tovo (57.2)