What the Polls Show

Who's on first? Depends on what day it is.

Here are the latest polling numbers in races on some of our local ballots:

• U.S. Senate: The rather wild number fluctuations make us wonder about Rasmus­sen Reports, but if its numbers are accurate, then Democrat Rick Noriega has lost ground in his battle to unseat John Cor­nyn. As of Oct. 21, Cornyn had a 55%-40% advantage (500 likely voters, margin of error ±4.5%.); as recently as Sept. 29, Cornyn's edge was a still solid but much lower 50%-43%. Since Rasmussen began tracking in May, it's shown the race as close as 4 points and as wide as 17 but always with Cornyn on top.

• Congressional District 10: A Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll Oct. 20-22 showed an ever-narrowing gap between incumbent Republican Michael McCaul (46%) and Democrat Larry Joe Doherty (42%) with 4% "other" and 8% undecided (400 likely voters, MOE ±5%). Three previous polls by other firms since May have shown McCaul's advantage, respectively, at 9%, 6%, and (less than a month ago) 5%.

President: There are any number of websites tracking the Electoral College possibilities, but they all consistently show Sen. John McCain in dire straits in the chase for the 270 votes needed to win. Where some predictions stood as of Monday:

(Website: Likely Obama / Likely McCain / Toss-up)

Electoral-Vote.com: 306 / 132 / 100

Pollster.com: 306 / 142 / 90

NPR.org: 286 / 163 / 89

CNN.com: 277 / 174 / 87

Fivethirtyeight.com: 351 / 187 / 0*

*Doesn't do toss-ups

A note to readers: Bold and uncensored, The Austin Chronicle has been Austin’s independent news source for almost 40 years, expressing the community’s political and environmental concerns and supporting its active cultural scene. Now more than ever, we need your support to continue supplying Austin with independent, free press. If real news is important to you, please consider making a donation of $5, $10 or whatever you can afford, to help keep our journalism on stands.

Support the Chronicle  

READ MORE
More polls
Polling in Senate Race All Over the Map
Polling in Senate Race All Over the Map
Who's ahead in U.S. Senate race? It depends.

Lee Nichols, Aug. 22, 2008

More by Lee Nichols
Game Changer
Game Changer
A new football culture for Austin bars

Oct. 23, 2015

Beer Flights
Beer Flights
Celis: welcome home

Aug. 17, 2012

KEYWORDS FOR THIS STORY

polls, election

MORE IN THE ARCHIVES
NEWSLETTERS
One click gets you all the newsletters listed below

Breaking news, arts coverage, and daily events

Can't keep up with happenings around town? We can help.

Austin's queerest news and events

Updates for SXSW 2019

All questions answered (satisfaction not guaranteed)

Information is power. Support the free press, so we can support Austin.   Support the Chronicle