Where Are They? T.e.a. Doesn't Know

Total Dropouts are calculated not from enrollment figures, but from the number of students whom schools report have discontinued their education without graduating. Those students are then subtracted from the total 7th-12th grade enrollment to determine the Annual Dropout Rate. The Longitudinal Rate is a mathematical estimate of the numbers of students who drop out over a six-year span. TEA does not currently track classes over time to determine a true longitudinal dropout rate.

1996-97 Texas Dropout Rates by Ethnicity and Grade Level

Student Subpopulation	7th-12th Grade Enrollment	Total Dropouts	% of Total Dropouts	Annual Dropout Rate	Estimated Longitudinal Rate
White	815,175	7,894	29.4%	1.0%	5.7%
African Am.	240,142	4,737	17.6%	2.0%	11.3%
Hispanic	603,067	13,589	51.5%	2.3%	13.0%
Other	47,588	411	1.5%	0.9%	5.1%
Grade 7	307,283	819	3.0%	0.3%	1.9%
Grade 8	303,353	1,508	5.6%	0.5%	3.0%
Grade 9	367,960	8,374	31.1%	2.3%	12.9%
Grade 10	278,762	6,069	22.6%	2.2%	12.4%
Grade 11	231,081	4,782	17.8%	2.1%	11.8%
Grade 12	217,533	5,349	19.9%	2.5%	13.9%
Total	1,705,972	26,901	100.0%	1.6%	9.1%

In 1996, the Office of the State Auditor determined that the actual number of dropouts in the 1994-95 school year was double what TEA reported; the following year, TEA began requiring more detailed withdrawal records from school districts. Those findings were not available for this article. One likely discovery will be that large numbers of students are withdrawing from school with a parent's signature showing intent to enroll in a GED program, which excludes them from being counted as dropouts. There's very little follow-up, however, to determine how many actually enroll in and complete those programs.

But even TEA's dropout numbers -- flawed as they may be -- reveal startling trends when dissected. If the seventh and eighth-grade population is excluded from TEA's calculations to determine a true high school dropout rate for 1996-97, the annual rate rises more than a third, to 2.24%, or 12.5% over four years. That's one dropout in eight instead of one in 11. The Hispanic longitudinal rate rises to nearly one in five if the lower grades are excluded. However you measure them, minority dropout rates are consistently more than double that of whites, mirroring the ratios that show up in the enrollment figures at left.

Using TEA dropout numbers, the National Center for Education Statistics lists Texas' high school dropout rate at 2.7% annually, one of the lowest rates in the nation. Oddly, however, the NCES also finds that Texas has a very high percentage of 18- to 24-year-olds who are neither in school nor have completed a diploma or GED. The NCES pegs Texas' high-school completion rate at 80%, one of the five worst showings in the nation.