'The NFL Beat': Championship Edition

This is the "NFL Beat" and if I were Dwight K. Schrute, this week would be the equivalent of the annual North Eastern Pennsylvania Beet Farmers' Convention. The fruits of our labor are ready to harvest and take to market.

For some people it is Christmas. For some it is Hanukkah. I have never met anyone who celebrates Kwanzaa, but I’m pretty sure that’s what this feels like.

Make sure all seats and tray tables are in the upright and locked position. This is your captain speaking and this is fantasy football Super Bowl.

Jaguars (4-10) @ Titans (7-7)
The Titans have not mathematically been eliminated from the playoffs, still holding onto a 6% chance of landing the last AFC wild card spot. In order to get in, they need to win out and have both the Bengals and the Jets lose at least one of their last two games each. The Jags are worthless, but RB Maurice Jones-Drew is a fantasy soldier. The NFL’s current rushing leader has averaged more fantasy points per week than any other back in the last three weeks, and the Titans have been giving up 22.5 points a week to the position over the same period. I expect another big game.

Rams (2-12) @ Steelers (10-4)
The Steelers are playoff-bound in the AFC, but still have home-field advantage to play for as division foe Baltimore nips at their heels. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger tried to gut it out on a high ankle sprain last week in San Francisco, and it worked about as well as his signature “Do you know who I am?” pick-up line or his foray into helmetless motor sports. Disastrous. It is highly unlikely Roethlisberger will play on it this week, leaving Charlie Batch with the QB reigns. The good news for the Steelers is the Rams are a mess. They have lost six straight and are a team in disarray from top to bottom. Expect the Steelers to lean heavily on RB Rashard Mendenhall in Ben’s absence against the season’s sixth best matchup for opposing RBs.

Dolphins (5-9) @ Patriots (11-3)
The Miami Dolphins have won five of their last seven games, and seem to be a fairly crappy team on the rise under interim HC Todd Bowles. Dolphins RB Reggie Bush may be the biggest surprise of the second half of the 2011 season, and only four RBs averaged more fantasy points per week over the last three weeks. I expect a big game from Bush as well as serviceable production from Dolphins QB Matt Moore who will be feeding WR Brandon Marshall against 2011’s No. 1 overall WR matchup. As for the Pats, I love QB Tom Brady as always, as well as TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

Browns (4-10) @ Ravens (10-4)
Do you remember what Ravens RB Ray Rice did in Week 13 at Cleveland? I do. He ran like an angry little bowling ball of hate to the tune of 214 total yards and a TD. I expect more of that this week. Ravens veteran WR Anquan Boldin will miss the remainder of the regular season with a torn meniscus, giving extra looks to fellow WR Torrey Smith. Expectations for Smith should be tempered this week, though, as he will be locked up on Cleveland’s one bona fide defensive weapon: CB Joe Haden.

Raiders (7-7) @ Chiefs (6-8)
The race for the AFC West title is still wide open, and this bitter division rivalry pits against one another two teams in very different situations. The previously-hot Raiders are losers of three straight, giving up more than 28 points in each loss. The Chiefs are still basking in the glow of their unlikely win over the then-undefeated Packers in Week 15. Chiefs QB Kyle Orton has been terrible in his career vs. the Raiders while playing as a Bronco, but this is not the same Raiders pass defense. I like Orton as a high-level QB2 this week. Raiders RB Michael Bush is a steady 12-18-point machine in Darren McFadden’s absence and he is my No. 6 ranked RB of Week 16.

Vikings (2-12) @ Redskins (5-9)
Redskins WR Santana Moss will have a big game against 2011’s third best WR matchup with Jabar Gaffney also receiving a significant uptick in value. Redskins QB Rex Grossman faces the best QB matchup of 2011 and should be considered a Top 10 fantasy QB play (although I hope you don’t have to start him if you are in the fantasy Super Bowl). Redskins RB Roy Helu has a dream matchup in Minnesota, the fourth best over the last three weeks, but his lingering foot and ankle injuries leave the door open for Redskins HC Mike Shanahan to screw Helu’s owners by getting fellow rookie RB Evan Royster more involved. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson will make his second start after a pedestrian 6-point game in his return to the lineup in Week 15 against the Saints. While you can never discount Peterson, I still like his backup Toby Gerhart as a strong RB2 play this week.

Cardinals (7-7) @ Bengals (8-6)
This is a game of two defenses trending in distinctly different directions. While the Cardinals have showed second-half improvement across all defensive categories, the previously stout Bengals defense is in a free fall after the loss of their talented and versatile CB Leon Hall. In this game I like Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald and RB Beanie Wells as well as Bengals RB Cedric Benson and WR A.J. Green. Cardinals stud CB Patrick Peterson will limit Green’s productivity to some degree, but Green seems to make at least one amazing play a week for your fantasy squad regardless of the matchup.

Bucs (4-10) @ Panthers (5-9)
The Bucs present a dream matchup for opponents across the board. Panthers QB Cam Newton was my easy pick for No. 1 in Week 16, with both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart representing high-upside RB2 plays for the Panthers. I like Bucs RB LeGarrette Blount to have double-digit fantasy points this week, but he is hard to depend on. The Panthers defense has showed drastic improvement since the first time these two teams met, and if the game gets away from the Bucs, we have seen that their HC Raheem Morris will abandon running the ball with Blount and shift to passing formations which feature RB Kregg Lumpkin.

Giants (7-7) @ Jets (8-6)
Time to grab a nice glass of egg nog and put on your favorite Grinch costume, as this game should have you hunkered down free of holiday interruptions and silly traditions like enjoying the company of family and friends. This must-win game for both teams presents the best matchups for the Jets. In 2011, the Jets have given up the fifth fewest points to opposing QBs while the Giants have given up the fifth most. Wide receivers: Jets, second fewest; Giants, second most. One area the Giants have gotten much better in is run defense, and I think they will stop Jets RB Shonn Greene’s recent tear as the third most productive fantasy RB over the last three weeks.

Broncos (8-6) @ Bills (5-9)
The story of this game may end up being Tim Tebow’s Christmas miracle in a snowstorm, but what has me excited is the RB matchup. Denver is a Top 6 easiest matchup over the last three weeks while Buffalo is the easiest. I love Bills RB C.J. Spiller more than any expert in the world this week, as well as a big game out of Broncos RB Willis McGahee, and upside for a 7-9 point game out of his back-up Lance Ball.

Chargers (7-7) @ Lions (9-5)
The Chargers are a December phenomenon historically, and this year has been no different as they have won three straight this month to battle back into AFC West contention. While it was encouraging to see Lions QB Matt Stafford re-establish a viable connection with the league’s best WR, Calvin Johnson, last week, the Lions defense has been quite a liability as of late. They have gone for the 12th worst RB matchup to the eighth best in the last three weeks and I like a big game out of hot Chargers RB Ryan Mathews as well as QB Phillip Rivers who will be facing the best matchup for opposing QBs over the last five weeks.

Eagles (6-8) @ Cowboys (8-6)
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said earlier this week that this must-win NFC East battle had him “scared." He is right to be. Eagles RB LeSean McCoy is projected as my No. 1 RB of Week 16 and the Cowboys will have to reduce his role to win. Both teams have showed defensive improvement over the last three weeks, but in these types of games you throw matchups out the window. Cowboys RB Felix Jones is dealing with a hamstring injury, leaving the possibility that the recently signed Sammy Morris may inherit a majority of snaps on run plays. Cowboys QB Tony Romo is a strong play this week as are WRs Miles Austin and Laurent Robinson.

49ers (11-3) @ Seahawks (7-7)
The Seahawks have been reeling against opposing runners while the 49ers remain one of the best teams in recent history in this statistic. Don’t look for Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch to continue his “Beast Mode” run of success this week, but keep an eye on Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin in a passing game that clicks better at home against the seventh best matchup of the last three weeks.

Bears (7-7) @ Packers (13-1)
All you need to know this week: An angry Packers team faces third string QB Josh McCown and injury decimated Bears. Start Your Packers. Also keep an eye on Bears RB Kahlil Bell. Marion Barber has been ruled out, and Bell is a great plug-and-play RB2 this week.

Falcons (9-5) @ Saints (11-3)
Points. Expect points in this Monday Night, pivotal NFC South shootout. I love Saints QB Drew Brees, TE Jimmy Graham and WRs Marques Colston and Lance Moore. I do not fully trust one single Saints RB this week, but the safest start among them is Darren Sproles. Mark Ingram looks as if he will be unable to go and Chris Ivory should certainly be on your bench with Pierre Thomas being the more serviceable (but still bad) option against the third toughest run matchup in the Falcons. On the Falcons side I love RB Michael Turner, QB Matt Ryan and of course WRs Roddy White and Julio Jones.

[Alex Dunlap is the host of RosterWatch on 104.9FM ESPN Radio Austin, founder of Rosterwatch.com, and a featured expert contributor to the FantasyPros.com network.]