The Austin Chronicle

'The NFL Beat': Tebow's Piss-Poor Arm and More

By Alex Dunlap, November 17, 2011, 3:13pm, The Score

If fantasy football is the grown man’s version of Dungeons and Dragons, we have deployed a nasty Wizard-9 absorption spell resulting in a second consecutive Top 8 finish in rankings accuracy worldwide. We now don our wizard cloaks in anticipation of Week 11.

Jets (5-4) @ Broncos (4-5)
Jets coach Rex Ryan and his downtrodden crew travel two time zones West on a short week to face Tim Tebow and the creepiest, weirdest offense ever.
On the Waiver Wire:
Broncos RB Willis McGahee has an injured hamstring and will be a game-time decision. RB Lance Ball would be the primary beneficiary of the rushing production should McGahee not be able to go. After completing 2 of only 8 passes last week, it is obvious that Denver will not be depending on Tebow’s pee-pee arm.

Raiders (5-4) @ Vikings (2-7)
Raiders QB Carson Palmer has been a true difference-maker in Oakland, and I like him as a fantasy play this week. The Vikings are the second-best matchup for fantasy QBs this season, and the best matchup over the last five weeks. Vikings veteran CB Antoine Winfield was injured last week and placed on IR Monday to make things even worse for Minnesota.
On the Waiver Wire:
Denarius. Moore.

Bills (5-4) @ Dolphins (2-7)
Fantasy owners of Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick can’t be happy with his recent performance, and to make matters worse WR Stevie Johnson (who has been worthless for multiple weeks now) is very questionable to go.
On the Waiver Wire:
Bills WRs David Nelson and Donald Jones. Nelson has been more than serviceable for two weeks since Donald Jones’ return to the lineup, allowing Nelson to return to his natural slot role. If Johnson does not go, Donald Jones will receive the majority of down-field looks in his absence.

Bengals (6-3) @ Ravens (6-3)
Awesome AFC North matchup. I told you last week to downgrade expectations for Ravens offensive skill players against a garbage Seahawks team, and I was right. This week, I like Ravens WRs Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith against a much better team. The Ravens pass game clicks better at home, and the Bengals have lost CB Leon Hall with a torn Achilles.
On the Waiver Wire:
Ravens TE Dennis Pitta was overshadowed in Week 10 by fellow TE Ed Dickson’s big night, but Pitta is averaging 5 catches on 7 targets through the last three games and provides a solid 4-point “floor” at the position.

Jaguars (3-6) @ Browns (3-6)
This game appeals to me about as much as a dirty diaper wrapped in burnt hair, but it's my job to know that Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew will go big. The Browns are the best in the league against the pass, but are giving up the sixth most fantasy points to RBs over the last five weeks.
On the Waiver Wire:
Jaguars backup RB Deji Karim may be in line to get some extra run this week as the Jags anemic pass offense will struggle mightily trying to throw on the Browns.

Cowboys (5-4) @ Redskins (3-6)
Cowboys RB Felix Jones makes his return to the Cowboys in a bitter division matchup with a more bitter taste in his mouth- having lost his job to the incredibly sick Demarco Murray while injured. Felix will still play a role as a third-down back, but his time there may be limited as well.
On the Waiver Wire:
If you listened to Trashman last week, you may have started a filthy piece of fantasy garbage only he could produce in Redskins WR Leonard Hankerson who blew up for 106 yards. Now it is back to the Dumpster for Hankerson, who was injured late in the game and placed on IR this week. With WR Santana Moss still out, WR Jabar Gaffney seems to be the logical recipient serviceable receiving production for the ‘Skins this week.

Buccaneers (4-5) @ Packers (9-0)
I’ll say it again. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is the best player in fantasy, and I don’t see that stopping against any defense. Especially the garbage Tampa Bay is rolling out right now.
On the Waiver Wire:
Packers RB John Kuhn is very slow and very caucasian. But, every year it seems as though he has a two-to-three-game miniburst of scoring production. After vulturing a cheap TD in Week 10, he may now get a similar shot or two against the league’s best matchup for opposing RBs in the Bucs.

Panthers (2-7) @ Lions (6-3)
Lions QB Matt Stafford and his broken right index finger are still in therapy to forget what happened in Chicago last week. Thankfully WR Calvin Johnson was sent from outer space and is accustomed to catching passes from three- and four-fingered aliens of varying universal lineage.
On the Waiver Wire:
Lions RB Kevin Smith. (What? Is this 2008?) Yes, that Kevin Smith. He was picked back up by the Lions last week and got three-fifth of the RB production on less than half the touches of RB Maurice Morris. Carolina is the second-best matchup for opposing RBs this season.

Cardinals (3-6) @ 49ers (7-1)
49ers RB Frank Gore is still a question mark for Sunday, but my sources from practice say they believe he will go. I can see this situation unfolding like Week 4 at Philly when backup RB Kendall Hunter was named the starter and then Gore went off for 127 and a TD after being benched by panicky owners. If Gore is active, he is a must-start every week.
On the Waiver Wire:
Cardinals WR Early Doucet is only owned in 39% of standard leagues which is crazy. He is averaging 9 points a week in standard leagues and nearly 14 in PPR over the last four games. The 49ers have been a Top 10 matchup against opposing WRs all season.

Seahawks (3-6) @ Rams (2-7)
The kind of game that actually makes you want to go to Home Depot to get some work done around the house on Sunday.
On the Waiver Wire:
Rams WR Austin Pettis is the slot receiver who replaced Greg Salas, who replaced Danny Amendola; who was supposed to be a “poor-man’s Wes Welker” in OC Josh McDaniels system. While the “six degrees of Welker” game doesn’t appeal too much to me, the fact that Pettis got the second-most targets from QB Sam Bradford last week does.

Chargers (4-5) @ Bears (6-3)
My early odds-on favorite for Chargers QB Phillip Rivers’ excuse for a terrible game against Chicago will be “the wind." I hear Chicago is windy this time of year. Of course, he could also blame his teammates. I do like Chargers TE Antonio Gates to produce big in this game, though.
On the Waiver Wire:
Chargers WR Vincent Brown is a stud and should be owned in all leagues. He narrowly avoided a two TD monster last week on a fluke call, and will continue to grow in his role.

Titans (5-4) @ Falcons (5-4)
Titans RB Chris Johnson had a bit of a breakout last week as I predicted, but owners should temper their expectations this week against the worst matchup for opposing RBs over the last six weeks in the Falcons.
On the Waiver Wire:
Titans WR Damian Williams. Forget Nate Washington. Damian Williams is the new #1 WR in Tennessee. It looks as if he is starting to live up to his potential after 2 straight productive fantasy weeks.

Eagles (3-6) @ Giants (6-3)
Eagles QB Mike Vick played through two broken ribs last week, but will not play in Week 11, leaving QB duties in a tough division matchup to one Vincent Paul Young Jr.
On the Waiver Wire:
VY has an elite running ability that puts him in the class of guys like Tebow as far as supplementary upside via valuable rushing yards. Only he has a better arm with a full stable of weapons.

Chiefs (4-5) @ Patriots (6-3)
The Chiefs lost QB Matt Cassel to IR Monday, and taking the reigns will be none other than Tyler Palko. Have Fun in Foxborough, Mr. Palko.
On the Waiver Wire:
Chiefs WR Jonathan Baldwin had a breakout Week 7 followed by consecutive stinkers, but I like him to get back on track against 2011’s best WR matchup in the Patriots.

[Alex Dunlap is the host of RosterWatch on 104.9FM ESPN Radio Austin, founder of, and a featured expert contributor to the network.]

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