Farewell to Blair

In 1997, when British Prime Minister Tony Blair led the Labour Party to power, he was seen as a savior of a nation burnt out on 18 years of Conservative misadministration. Now, 10 years later, he finally stands down. His approval ratings in the low 20s, his inheritance in tatters, and much of this is due to his close relationship with President George Bush. Now the Bush administration, and whoever follows it, will have to deal with the loss of its closest unwavering ally.

Blair's cozy relationship with Bush was, initially, a pure extension of the British PM's close relationship with his predecessor, Bill Clinton. Like many, he expected Bush to be genuinely capable of reaching across party lines, based on his reputedly cordial relationship with Bob Bullock (and pretty obviously not on any policies). After 9/11, they became locked in the relationship that will define the legacy of both. After all, it was the UK that provided the famous "sexed-up" intelligence dossier on Iraq's WMD capacity that Bush used to help justify invasion.

Blair was convinced that he was needed and that the UK "should stand shoulder to shoulder with our oldest ally." This led him to stand ever-closer to Bush (so close that many saw him as a lapdog) and stay in office longer than he was supposed to (one of the worst-kept secrets in UK politics was that Blair had struck a deal with his onetime opponent and now heir apparent, Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown to stand down as PM by 2005). The more he stayed, the more he became associated with Bush. Now he stands down - discredited, dejected, unmourned.

Here's the real kicker. The true Blair inheritance is that no British political party will find a single vote in having the same relationship with Bush. Labour is holding on by a thread; in the recent election in Scotland, a traditional Labour stronghold, they went down to the Scottish Nationalist Party. That's sort of like Panhandle Republicans getting pummeled by resurgent Dixiecrats. Even if Labour does hold power in the British parliament, with or without an election, they will be under pressure from all sides to withdraw troops from Iraq and Afghanistan.

Will this mean an end to the "special relationship"? No, but it may mean less hand-holding, and more cool handshakes.