Down-to-the-Wire Polling Numbers

Here are the latest numbers as of Monday morning, freely stolen from some of my favorite sources: electoral-vote.com, Majority Watch, the Dallas Morning News and the Houston Chronicle. What to expect: Dems will easily take the House, it's anybody's guess in the U.S. Senate, Perry will still be our governor and Hutchison will still be our senator.

But please, folks, don't let any of these numbers discourage you from voting. Remember, there is only one poll that matters, and that's the one being conducted tomorrow in your local precinct. Remember, Dewey did not beat Truman.

U.S. Senate (electoral-vote.com)
50 Democrats
49 Republicans
1 tie
Key Senate races:
Montana: Dem, 49%-46% (an average of four polls)
Missouri: Dem, 48-46 (seven polls)
Virginia: tied, 47-47 (six polls)
Maryland: Dem, 48-45 (five polls)

U.S. House (Majority Watch):
Dem 240
Rep 193
2 ties

U.S. Senator, Texas (electoral-vote's average of Zogby and Rasmussen)
Hutchison (R) 58%
Radnofsky (D) 35%

Governor (Dallas Morning News)
Perry (R) 39%
Bell (D) 22%
Strayhorn (I) 18%
Friedman (I) 11%

Governor (Houston Chronicle)
Perry (R) 38%
Bell (D) 22%
Strayhorn (I) 21%
Friedman (I) 11%

Congressional District 22, Texas
Now here are some interesting poll numbers. This is Tom DeLay's former seat; there is no Republican on the ballot, but Republican Shelley Sekula-Gibbs is running as a write-in. Winning as a write-in is awfully tough, even if you are a Republican in a Republican-heavy district such as this. But notice the difference between the numbers when poll respondents are offered an anonymous "write-in" and when they are specifically given Sekula-Gibbs' name on the ballot. The message here: Lampson seems to have the edge this year, but don't expect him to be a fire-breathing liberal. He'll have just two years to really impress people in this very conservative district, otherwise he'll be easily tossed out in 2008.

Houston Chronicle poll:
Q: If the election for Congress were held today and the candidates were Democrat Nick Lampson, Libertarian M. Bob Smither, and a “write-in candidate”, for whom would you vote?
Lampson 36%
Smither 4%
write-in 35%
Not sure 25%

Q: [If a write-in,] Whose name would you write-in?
Sekula-Gibbs 79%
Don Richardson 0.4%
Joe Reasbeck 0.5%
Someone else 3%
Not sure 17%

Q: If the election for Congress were held today and the candidates were Democrat Nick Lampson, Republican Shelley Sekula Gibbs, and Libertarian M. Bob Smither, for whom would you vote?
Lampson 33%
Sekula-Gibbs 50%
Smither 4%

Oh, and one last number that is apparently having a strong effect on this election, even though he's not on the ballot: Just this morning, the Washington Post reports that 57% of Americans disapprove of President Bush's job performance. Another 40%, who apparently cannot recognize complete, utter incompetence even when it is slapping them upside the head, say they approve of Bush, and a final 3%, who must be the most completely apathetic people in the world, or perhaps live in complete seclusion playing video games all day and never turn on the news, say they have no opinion of Bush.

And this just in: A similar poll by CNN was even worse for the president, showing disapproval of Bush at 61%, and approval at 35%.