Big Ben Goes Bust
Let's go to the tape!
Well, $40 a vote, or however much Ben Bentzin's spent so far, doesn't go as far as it used to. Especially when you don't spend it on effective get-out-the-vote efforts, as Big Ben certainly did not. The tale of the tape:
Total turnout: 13.7%
In boxes with Howard over 50%: 16.1%
In boxes won by Howard: 15.6%
In boxes won by Bentzin: 9.6%
In boxes with Democatic vote (Rider+Howard) over 50%: 14.7%
Everyone got that?Boxes where Howard did well = above-average turnout. Boxes where Bentzin did well = below-average turnout. Any questions? Did you give money to Big Ben? Do you want a refund?
But wait, you say! Turnout was so low overall that these differences may be products of random chance, not of a breakdown of the, uh, fearsome Travis County GOP machine. Well, through the miracle of fancy math (we'll spare you the details), even when compared to the relative high/low turnout distribution in November 2004 (the Todd Baxter/Kelly White throwdown), Howard and Rider's combined GOTV slightly overperformed, and Bentzin's went the other way.
Donna Howard: 49.5%
Ben Bentzin: 37.8%
Kathy Rider: 10.2%
Ben Easton: 2.3%
Howard's % in Rider's best boxes: 51.8%
Bentzin's % in Easton's best boxes: 44.7%
Howard's % in other boxes: 47.3%
Bentzin's % in other boxes: 33.4%
Yes, Kathy Rider took votes from Howard and Ben Easton from Bentzin, but while this may be theoretically a swing district, it doesn't have that many swing boxes. In the boxes where Rider did better than her 10.2% overall total, Howard won an outright majority these would be the solid Dem boxes. In boxes where the Libertarian did better than his puny 2.3% overall total, Bentzin did better than average though, it must be noted, did not win outright.
In boxes won by Kelly White in 2004:
Ben and Donna, Todd and Kelly:
In boxes won by Todd Baxter in 2004:
In other words, Howard did pretty well compared to Kelly White (Howard and Rider combined, of course, outperformed White handily), and Bentzin did a lot worse than Todd Baxter. The map shows the geographic extent of Bentzin's choke-itude. Big Ben only outperformed Baxter in one box (218, in the far northeast corner of the district). He managed to keep his losses to a minimum in Northwest Hills, Tarrytown, and Lake Travis, but in Howard's stomping grounds in the Eanes ISD, and in Jonestown and Lago Vista, Bentzin seems to have actively repelled Baxter's 2004 voters or otherwise fallen victim to their buyers' remorse regarding the GOP.
Amy Smith, Fri., Jan. 27, 2006
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