The Party Line

by Mike Clark-Madison

Never before had Austinites been asked to voteon both major (non-partisan) city issues and statewide and countywide (partisan) races in the same election. So the November 3 vote offers a unique template of local voting behavior; some of the numbers may surprise you, others will confirm what you've long suspected. Here are some of the details:

• Progressives might rejoice in the knowledge that they do not live by Central Austin turnout alone, though they certainly couldn't live without it. Normally, in a city election, the Central Austin boxes' voting strength outpaces all but a few precincts in the northwest and southwest, hence the Green Machine Council. On Nov. 3, Central Austin turnout was below the Travis County average, and turnout throughout town was triple what we've seen in the last two city ballots, yet the city's bond package showed strength throughout Austin. (The only proposition to lose anywhere was Prop. 11, the new Civic Center/rental car tax item, narrowly defeated in southwest Austin.) The city center's relative chunk of the countywide vote is smaller still, but the Dems still held on throughout the city, though not as well in the county at large.

• Even the famously aggrieved newly annexed neighborhoods did not slap down the city's evil tax-and-spend bond package, and indeed their strength is probably a bit overrated. None of the annexed boxes, not even 305 (Kiker Elementary, i.e., Circle C Ranch), voted against all the city propositions, and while Circle C did vote down Props. 2 and 4 (parks and libraries) by a 2-to-1 margin, the neighboring box 360 (Bowie High School) passed the same measures by narrow margins. Similar splits could be seen in the Northwest/Williamson County annexed boxes, though none of the folks up north, if their votes are any indication, are quite as angry as those in Circle C.

• Travis County boxes outside Austin were another matter, which probably does not surprise you; the GOP slate's strong performance in the northwest and southwest regions can largely be attributed to the many out-of-town boxes in those areas of the county. (For the most part, the southwest delivered bigger numbers to the GOP, while the northwest offered bigger percentage margins.) The out-of-town turnout was also significantly higher than the in-town rate, which is at least a little odd considering all the controversy that (supposedly) attended the city propositions. Nearly three-quarters of the out-of-town boxes voted at above the countywide average, compared to only about 40% of the city boxes.

• What likely surprises and delights the Travis County Republican Party is the solid performance, even (relatively speaking) within the city limits, by their county candidates, most of whom (except for Todd Baxter) were little-known and ill-funded and up against well-known incumbents. This can't be entirely explained by straight-ticket voting, which in any event was more likely to benefit Democrats, or by Gov. George Bush's coattails, which proved not to exist within the city limits. But the fact that someone like Stephen Foster (who?) was able to carry 40% of the city vote, and 58% of the out-of-town vote, against longtime incumbent District Clerk Amalia Rodriguez-Mendoza means that Travis County is no longer a one-party zone.

• Well, Todd Baxter proves that, you may say, but the real success story in the Commissioners' Court races was Jim Shaw. The Precinct 3 race fell along the usual lines, with Nan Clayton cleaning Baxter's clock in the central city and getting her clock cleaned in the suburbs. Since Pct. 3, of the four Commish Court slots, has the most suburban and out-of-town voters, one might ask why Baxter didn't do better, or at least concede that Clayton did the best she probably could. None of this holds quite as well for Pct. 2, where Shaw pulled a higher percentage of the vote within the city limits than any other GOP county candidate, and where incumbent Karen Sonleitner pulled a lower percentage of the Central Austin vote than any other Dem county candidate.
• Where Sonleitner narrowly won re-election was in Pflugerville and Wells Branch, part of the interesting and volatile North/Northeast column, the county's great swing-vote sector. In previous city elections, the folks up this way have stayed home, and many have felt that it was this apathy that cost conserva-moderate council candidates like Ronney Reynolds and Eric Mitchell. This time around, these boxes skipped back and forth on the state races, went solidly Dem on the county slate, and okayed all the city propositions, which may suggest that the previous conventional wisdom is not so wise.

• Yes, Gov. Bush has friends in the Hispanic community; his percentage of the vote in South/ Southeast Travis County (where the majority of boxes are predominantly Hispanic), was just under 49%, exactly what he pulled among Hispanics statewide. And no, he has no friends in the African-American community; East Austin, and the adjoining East Travis County precincts, gave Garry Mauro, and most every other Democrat, their highest percentage totals. In neither case does Bush have any coattails, which should make it fairly difficult for his anointed GOP heir, whomever it might be, to repeat his performance.

• Admit it: Even though she won, wouldn't you be a little embarrassed to be Carole Rylander? Austin's former mayor and school board president delivered just about the worst performance of any GOP candidate in Travis County, on either side of the city limits, and far worse than fellow Austinite Susan Combs. To know One Tough Grandma is clearly not to love her.

About the Charts The geographic breakdown includes the entire county -- except, of course, in the city races. The city races also include four Williamson County boxes (some combining more than one precinct) in the "Northwest" column. The bulk of out-of-town boxes are to be found in the North/Northeast, Northwest, and Southwest areas. Turnout figures for the city are based only on boxes lying predominantly within the city limits (which does not include the Williamson Co. boxes). Similarly, the "City" and "County" columns reflect totals for boxes lying predominantly in- or out-of-town; more boxes than you may realize straddle the city limits. Libertarians were omitted except in three cases: the U.S. Rep. District 10 and Court of Criminal Appeals Place 3 races, where the Libs were the only opposing candidates, and the Land Commissioner race, where the Lib scored enough votes to decide the outcome. Keep this in mind when looking at the statewide-race percentages, which will not match those you saw last week.

City Races | County Races | State Races

Comparing Turnout at City and County Boxes     Total Boxes 50%+ 35-50% Under 34% CENTRAL City 41 5 10 26 Non-City 0 0 0 0 EAST City 16 1 3 12 Non-City 6 0 3 3 NORTH/NE City 29 3 8 18 Non-City 16 3 10 3 NORTHWEST City 26 4 14 8 Non-City 7 2 5 0 SOUTH/SE City 32 0 2 30 Non-City 7 0 1 6 SOUTHWEST City 27 6 12 9 Non-City 19 8 11 0 TOTAL BOXES City 171 19 49 103 Non-City 55 13 30 12