Silver and the Cloudy Future
Head of election prognosticators fivethirtyeight.com talks at SXSW about the limits of prediction
By Richard Whittaker,
11:59PM, Mon. Mar. 16, 2009
It's a mind-set thing: policy wonks think issue-by-issue, while the general population doesn't tend to track elections at the same micro-level. So what are they looking for? "Leadership and personality, but I don't think people are thinking 'well, this candidate looks good in a suit,'" he added.
The biggest takeaway from his work may be that the old monolithic voting groups, like gender and race, have been pretty much debunked. However, poll trackers shouldn't be trying to build new stereotypical voters, and should instead look at the nuances of what he called "an infinite data set." After all, the biggest lessons aren't in looking at the 75% of evangelicals that went for McCain, but the 25% that voted Obama.
However, he warned, stats crunching for predictions has its limits. Where it could get ugly, as host and Business Week columnist Stephen Baker noted, is that firms are using predictive technology to find excuses to sack people who may not be great at their job five years from now. "That's a whole new can of worms," said Silver, adding, "I'm a little suspicious that a poorly-executed object-driven prediction is often worse than a subjective one."